670
FXUS63 KICT 080025
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
725 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few strong/severe storms possible Wednesday morning across far
  southeast KS.

- Dry conditions expected through the rest of the work week with
  some small rain chances returning for the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across
the Northern Plains with one of the main vort lobes extending
from the Northern Intermountain into the Central Rockies. At the
surface, cold front extends from northern MO into far eastern
OK.

A few sprinkles or light showers will be possible early this
evening for areas generally along and north of I-70 in an area
of 700mb warm advection. However, low levels are so dry that
it`s going to be tough for much to reach the ground. Vort lobe
to our west is expected to translate east tonight and by Wed
morning stretch from southeast Nebraska into CO and at the same
time, low level moisture will surge north across eastern OK into
southeast KS. There is decent model agreement in some storms
developing after 09z across southeast KS in an area of 850mb
moisture transport. Any storm that develop should quickly move
off into MO by the late morning hours. Even above 850mb, there
looks to be plenty of instability for large hail, even with
marginal shear. Cold front should push back to the southeast by
the early afternoon hours with the more substantial surface
convection expected southeast of the forecast area.

There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in the upper
low over the Northern Plains shearing out with some of the
upper energy getting cutoff across the Great Basin by Thu and
remaining there through at least Fri. Meanwhile to our east,
northwest flow aloft will be in place with this setup providing
dry conditions and comfortable temps. Cutoff low to our west
will start to move east on Sat, tracking over the Central
Rockies Sat night. Ahead of this feature, some scattered showers
and storms will be possible on Sun across mainly western KS
into Western OK with some of this affecting the western portion
of our forecast area. At this time, not looking for any severe
weather with this activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Main concern this period is winds shifting with the passing of
a weak cold front. There is a slight chance (<20%) of showers or
elevated storms tomorrow morning near KCNU. Best chances will
be SE of the site. However, increased moisture may bring sct/bkn
MVFR cigs to southeast KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KMB