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000
FXUS62 KJAX 242318
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
718 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(through tonight)

Surface high pressure remains dominant while a shortwave dives
across the area aloft. Despite the upper disturbance, a very dry
airmass aloft (JAX RAOB average a 4% relative in the mid levels)
will continue fair weather conditions overnight. Given the dry
airmass and lack of recent rain, fog development is not expected and
if any develops it should be very shallow. Temperatures will follow
very closely to typical climate values for late April with highs
this afternoon in the upper 70s and low 80s and temps tonight
falling to the upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s at the coast.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)

A weak cold front approaches SE GA Thursday morning and slowly
pushes south to the FL/GA line by the evening hours. Conditions
look to be too dry to produce any precipitation. Expect clear
skies in the morning with increasing cloud coverage in the
afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland
with coastal temperatures staying slightly cooler.

Friday, the weak cold front shifts north and east a bit so that it
drapes across SE GA once again and will dissipate by the evening.
Conditions are still too dry to produce any precipitation. Winds
will begin to increase in the afternoon as pressure gradients
begin to tighten up between a low pressure out west and the high
pressure off the northeast coast. Temperatures inland will be in
the mid 80s with temperatures in the low to mid 80s closer to the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Predominantly dry conditions are expected for the forecast period
as high pressure ridging at the surface dominate the region.
Winds will be breezy Saturday and Sunday due to tightening
pressure gradients and easterly winds. Monday to Thursday, as the
high pressure makes its way down the east coast and settles off
the coast of the Carolinas, it will allow the seabreeze to make
its way well inland each afternoon.

Temperatures for the weekend will be in the low to mid 80s,
staying slightly cooler at the coast. Temperatures will steadily
increase into the 90s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR at all sites with diurnal FEW-SCT 060 cumulus clouds at the
moment that will fade after sunset with SKC expected through the
night with light winds. The usual patchy MVFR fog expected at VQQ
in the 07-11Z time frame, otherwise fog probs too low for
inclusion at other TAF sites. Diurnal Cumulus in the 040-060 SCT
develops Thursday afternoon along with East Coast sea breeze
pushing through SGJ/SSI by 17Z, CRG by 18Z and JAX/VQQ around 19Z,
while Gulf Coast sea breeze reaches GNV after 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will dominate the waters through tonight with a sea
breeze developing near shore during the afternoon and evening hours.
A weak trough/front will approach the waters on Thursday with high
pressure building back in through the remainder of the forecast
period. Onshore flow will strengthen Friday and build seas through
the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will be present
through the end of the week with risk increasing to High this
weekend as onshore winds and surf increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A high pressure ridge across northeast FL will push southward as
a weak frontal boundary begins to move into southeast GA Thursday
morning. The front will stall Thursday evening just north of the
FL/GA line and dissipate by Friday. Today, minRH values range from
30-35% inland with higher values along the coast. West to
southwest winds expected around 5 mph, but breezier southeast
winds of 10-15 mph are expected along the coast due to the sea
breeze. Thursday, calm variable winds expected with the sea breeze
making its way in at the coast from the east to southeast near 10
mph in the afternoon. Friday through the weekend, most locations
will see prevailing east to southeast winds at 10-15 mph with
patchy high dispersions area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  62  80  66  78 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  58  85  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  83  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$