050
FXUS65 KLKN 142023
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
123 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening
across portions of central Nevada. Dry and warm conditions are
expected Wednesday through Friday as high pressure settles into
the region. Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s through
the end of the week. Opportunity for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms return for the weekend into early next week as a
trough moves through the region but significant rainfall is not
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night

An upper-level trough moving through the area along with residual
mid-level moisture will promote isolated showers and thunderstorms
across parts of central Nevada through the late afternoon hours
before diminishing this evening. The chance of any rain remains
25% at best with chances for reaching or exceeding one tenth of an
inch is even lower, at less than 10%, mainly over the Great Basin
National Park area. Much drier air has moved into northern
portions of the state allowing for mostly clear skies. Winds will
be out of the northwest at 10-15 mph with some 20 mph sustained
winds across northeastern Elko county this afternoon. Lows tonight
drop into the upper 30s and 40s.

A quiet, mostly sunny day is expected Wednesday with a
considerably drier air mass in place as an upper-level ridge
builds over the region. A north wind of 10-15 mph is expected
with temperatures climbing up into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday

Quiet conditions will continue for the Silver state through the
first half of the weekend. The benign pattern will have the silver
state under weak ridging that will be wedged in between
progressive northern stream flow shuttling multiple weak upper
troughs through the Pacific NW, and a weakening cutoff upper level
low off the central California coast. This pattern will begin to
shift on Sunday afternoon as a stronger northern stream upper
trough digs south out of the Canadian Maritime over coastal Oregon
and Northern California. Models show this trough may be just deep
enough to grab the upper low now located off shore of Baja
California and drag it onshore Sunday evening. This will push a
boundary through NV Monday into Tuesday. When it come to
precipitation models have not been bullish on developing showers
across the area, as POPS remain in the 10 to 25 percent range for
the start of the work week. Temperatures begin the week above
normal and will cool some but remain above normal through the
weekend as highs range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, dropping back
into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week. Overnight lows will range
in the low 40s to mid 50s for the period. Winds for the extended
will be out of the W through the weekend then changing to the NW
direction Monday and Tuesday. Speeds will be light to breezy at 5
to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Wednesday with light to breezy WNW winds of 5KT to 15KT
with gusts up to 25 KT possible. There is a chance for
thunderstorms for the US-50 Corridor south through Northern Nye
county this afternoon as a stalled weakening boundary, the
remnants of Mondays cool front, acts as a focus for showers and a
few storms, Although not high POPs of 10% to 30% lead to the
inclusion of VCTS for KTPH and KELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures this week will enhance melting of
the remaining mountain snowpack, with increased flows expected on
many area creeks and rivers including Lamoille Creek and the
Jarbidge River. Though stream gage heights are not at bankfull
stage, these streams are flowing fast and cold.

The Humboldt River at Comus is forecast to remain in action stage
today, then drop below action stage beginning Wednesday afternoon.

The Owyhee River at Mountain City is close to action stage. The
river may rise above action stage Wednesday morning.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/98/98