805
FXUS64 KMAF 072323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather in the short term as a broad upper level low situated
over northern CONUS transitions to an positively tilted trough by
Thursday, maintaining dry southwesterly flow aloft over the region.
A tightening gradient and downsloping westerly winds today and
tomorrow indicate above-normal temperatures with breezy winds both
afternoons, and highs should reach the upper 80s/low 90s with 100s
along the Rio Grande. Given the gusty winds and low humidity, fire
weather concerns return today and tomorrow with a Red Flag Warning
in effect for today...more information can be found in the fire
weather discussion below. Precipitation chances are nil for the
short term with the dry northwesterly flow aloft, and overnight lows
will be warm in the upper 50s to low 60s. Things start to change
just beyond the short term period as a cold front associated with
the aforementioned trough pushes down into the region, likely
sometime on Thursday.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday night, a secondary upper trough is forecast to develop
over Nevada/Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, a cold front will backdoor
the northeast after midnight.  Thursday, the front will continue
pushing southwest, but today`s runs retard it a little, apparently
due to diurnal heating, keeping it north of the Pecos by 00Z Friday.
This will result in highs AOB normal north of the Pecos, and only a
little cooler than Wednesday to the south.

Thursday night, the front resumes its southwest progress after
sundown w/loss of daytime heating.  MOS wants to create high gap
winds through KGDP, but this is a little late in the year for that.
As a result of the front, highs Friday will be a paltry ~ 8-10F
below normal.  A few showers are possible invof the front in the
lower Trans Pecos.  Saturday, temperatures should be very similar to
Friday`s, if not a bit cooler, despite dirty ridging over the
region.  The dryline is forecast to be west of the area, and
shortwaves moving through the ridge are forecast to develop
widespread convection across the area, making Saturday our best shot
at rain this forecast.  Attm, models depicts 50-60kts of deep layer
shear, but steeper lapse rates look to stay west of the area on the
other side of the dryline.

Sunday through Tuesday, a warming trend ensues.  Convection is
possible Sunday afternoon, but the dryline will be farther east.
Monday/Tuesday, rain chances, if any, will be confined to the
northeast.  By Tuesday afternoon, highs should be back to 2-4F above
normal, and this could be the warmest day this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Generally CAVU conditions expected across all area terminals
through 09/00Z. Gusty west to southwest winds will diminish around
sunset this evening, remaining in the 10-15 knot range overnight,
then pick up to a westerly direction sustained around 15 knots
with gusts in the 25-30 knot range around 08/16Z. -bc

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue to be dryline dependent,
and confined to areas that did not receive rainfall last week.
Wednesday, a surface trough strengthens over the region, increasing
20-ft westerlies across the higher terrain.  This will combine with
single-digit relative humidity and very high to extreme fire danger
to yield widespread RFTI of 4-7 across the higher terrain, with even
a sprinkling of 8-9 (extreme to historical) in the higher elevations
to the south.  This can be narrowed down considerably by discarding
areas that saw rainfall last week, i.e., the eastern half of the
FWA.  W/the western half in ERCs 75th percentile or higher, it won`t
take much for rapid fire growth.

Thursday, a cold front will limit critical fire weather north of the
Pecos, but areas south will be candidates for critical fire weather.
Increased 20-ft winds will be confined to the higher terrain but,
given ERCs 75th percentile or higher, RFTIs as low as 3 qualify for
critical fire weather conditions.

Friday and Saturday look to be "down" days, as cooler temperatures
permeate the region.  Sunday through Tuesday, however, the dryline
will develop east each day, and critical RH on the west side of this
feature may signal elevated fire weather each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  92  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  90  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  95  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  80  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  88  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  91  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  91  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     61  94  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...88