Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
442 FXZS60 NSTU 080028 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 128 PM SST Tue May 7 2024 .DISCUSSION... Satellite imageries show a dry pocket of air lingers over the islands. However, clusters of thunderstorms associated with the trough line to the south and the open cell cumuli clouds to the north-northeast surrounds the area, indicating an unstable atmosphere. Model data shows the trough line and the open cell cumuli clouds converging over the area, increasing the potential for adverse weather conditions. Model solutions also show the convergenze zone migrating northward as a low pressure system embedded within the trough line to the south moves southeastward, pushing the convergence zone closer and over the islands by at least Wednesday. Long term model solutions show the potential for showers and winds to increase by the latter part of the week into the new week. A much broader and larger high pressure system will generate moderate to fresh trades by Saturday through the new week. Therefore, expect scattered showers for tonight through Wednesday, increasing to numerous showers by Thursday with the possibility of thunderstorms rumbling. Showers are expected to be heavy at times with gusty winds during heavy downpours. Gentle north to northwest winds will remain for tonight through at least Thursday, becoming variable on Thursday night through Friday. Winds will again increase to fresh trades on Saturday through the rest of the forecast period. Showers will && .Marine... High surfs reaching the road continues to be observed throughout the south and west facing shores. This feature is linked directly to the long period south swell along the coastal waters. Model data show seas subsiding tonight through at least Friday, before building again to advisory thresholds on Friday night into the weekend. However, although seas will subside tonight, the long periods will continue to linger in the area, enhancing surfs. Additionally, thunderstorms in the area will likely elevate seas and surfs nearby. Therefore, advisories for small crafts and high surfs will remain through at least tonight. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen