873
FNUS28 KWNS 172204
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is
expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next
week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is
expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser
fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains,
due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid
in fire spread potential.

By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the
western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce
pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a
result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and
NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the
single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east
as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the
development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher
probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire
weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest
to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula
into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind
speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the
Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and
CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC
percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday.
However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not
quite high enough to introduce it yet.

Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through
D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM.
This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with
less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough
continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will
dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will
be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to
west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on
D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move
toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly
return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely
enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions
of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday,
although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM.

..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$