Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
489 FNUS73 KAPX 091414 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Wells Road 2 RX...USDA Forest Service National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1014 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 10. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Largely dry conditions expected around the forecast point Friday as surface high pressure influences keep cloud cover scattered at best. Big things to watch will be a light northerly to northeasterly wind set to shift more easterly as lake breeze processes commence by the afternoon. Initial drier conditions with RHs in the 30s and 40s may become less dry as the marine layer advects inland and dewpoints rise a little. Expecting surface temperatures in the mid-upper 50s to near 60, potentially cooling a few degrees as the lake breeze forces its way inland. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max temperature.....Around 60. Min humidity........41 percent. 20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the east late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL increasing to 5200-6800 ft AGL late in the morning. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (309.0-528.0). TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........36 35 38 41 43 44 44 45 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............51 54 56 57 58 58 59 59 RH..............62 55 48 45 43 41 41 41 20 ft wind dir..N N NE NE NE E E E 20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 ft wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.2 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.N N N N N NE E SE Transp wind spd.8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 Vrate kt-ft.....309 528 470 446 439 430 410 361 Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR PR .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Min temperature.....Around 41. Max humidity........90 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening becoming light. Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest around 6 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......2300-3900 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1000 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (21.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........43 42 40 48 56 64 68 71 75 76 78 79 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............57 55 53 51 49 48 46 45 44 43 42 42 RH..............45 48 52 53 58 61 65 71 76 79 85 86 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW 20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 ft wind gust.9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SW SW Transp wind spd.7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft.....252 140 60 31 23 27 23 23 24 23 21 21 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 60. Min humidity........49 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph late in the morning. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......200-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4200 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (11.0). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........80 83 78 73 69 55 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Temp............42 44 51 56 58 59 RH..............90 85 69 57 52 49 20 ft wind dir..W W SE E E E 20 ft wind spd..5 5 6 9 9 9 20 ft wind gust.7 7 10 13 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....300 500 2400 3900 4200 3800 Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 Transport wind..SW 6 SW 5 S 6 S 8 SE 9 E 9 Vrate kt-ft.....13 24 145 305 386 357 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...HAD Requested by...Corey Smith Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413609.0/APX .DELDT 05/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov