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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201754 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. KDHT AND KGUY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH SITES HAVING AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KDHT, BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO COVER BOTH SITES WITH
VCSH AND AMEND LATER IF NECESSARY.

AT KAMA...A COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN THE 260-300 DEGREE
RANGE AND GUSTY FOR THE REST THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IF
THE FRONT DOES SQUEEZE THROUGH KAMA EARLY...IT WOULD BE BEFORE 19Z
AND AN AMENDMENT WOULD BE NECESSARY TO CHANGE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
REDUCE SPEEDS, BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY. KAMA SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE TAF PD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS HAS MOVED SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
NOW BISECTS THE PANHANDLES...WITH READINGS NORTH OF A BOYS RANCH TO
PAMPA LINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SOUTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT
THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG UP FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF AMARILLO TO
WHEELER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING A REINFORCING SHOVE TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH TOWARD 90.
UPDATED POINT-N-CLICK AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS IF TSRA THAT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT
AND KGUY...AFTER 21Z. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF ANY TSRA
DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08