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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161109
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORABLE WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS MORNINGS TSTM COMPLEX AND A DEVELOPING SFC TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE TSTMS TO FORM AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS WELL...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HIGHEST POPS NERN
ZONES AND LOWEST FAR SW TX PNHDL FOR TONIGHT. USED AREAL QUALIFIER
DESCRIPTIVE WORDING FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FCST PCKG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD ACROSS THE PNHDLS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL END UP TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT HEADS SWD. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. FAVORABLE WNW TO
NW STEERING FLOW...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...FAST MOVG MINOR UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROFS GRAZNG THE FCST AREA...AND ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT OF TSTMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUE
NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AREAWIDE PLAUSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS. SOME
SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT BOTH DAYS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING WED
AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN ISOLD TSTORM MAY OCCUR AROUND
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE RETAINED A DRY FCST AFTER TUE NIGHT
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS REBOUNDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED THRU SAT.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  66  87  62  84 /  20  40  20  30  30
BEAVER OK                  93  65  87  64  84 /  20  50  10  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              91  61  86  61  83 /  20  40  20  40  30
BORGER TX                  95  67  89  65  84 /  20  40  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              93  65  87  62  85 /  20  30  20  40  30
CANYON TX                  92  66  87  61  84 /  20  30  20  30  30
CLARENDON TX               94  69  90  64  85 /  20  30  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 93  62  87  61  84 /  20  40  20  40  30
GUYMON OK                  93  65  88  64  84 /  20  50  20  30  30
HEREFORD TX                93  65  87  61  85 /  20  30  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                92  67  87  64  84 /  20  50  10  30  30
PAMPA TX                   92  66  87  63  84 /  20  40  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                94  69  90  65  85 /  20  40  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              95  71  92  67  87 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$