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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210900
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  52  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  80  47  86  55  78 /  10  10   5  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              76  47  86  50  82 /  20  20   5  20  30
BORGER TX                  80  55  90  59  86 /  10   5  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              80  51  92  55  89 /  20  10   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  50  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  30
CLARENDON TX               80  54  89  59  88 /  20  10  10  20  30
DALHART TX                 77  47  89  52  86 /  20  20   5  10  30
GUYMON OK                  79  48  87  53  79 /  20  10   5  20  40
HEREFORD TX                78  50  89  56  90 /  10  10   5  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                79  47  85  56  78 /  10   5  10  20  40
PAMPA TX                   78  52  85  57  86 /  20   5  10  20  40
SHAMROCK TX                83  53  86  60  85 /  20   5  10  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  55  91  62  87 /  20   5  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11