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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160447 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL PRESENT THREAT TO KGUY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS WESTERN KANSAS MCS MOVES
INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  REMAINING TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FREE FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE TROF WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN PART OF FORECAST
AREA.  LEADING SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING AFTERNOON...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING POSITION OF POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO SPECIFY LOCATION OF SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE CAPPED/LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY 12 AM.

OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO A WEAK MCS THAT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS, BUT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WE THINK THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG CAPPING/CONSIDERABLE CIN. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A HOOKER TO CANADIAN LINE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA WILL POSE
A THREAT TO NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE
IMPACT AFTER O6Z AT KGUY IF WESTERN KANSAS MCS DEVELOPS.  NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR KAMA.  SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS SLID EAST INTO OK...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN LEFT IN ITS WAKE...DOWNSTREAM OF
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST...CLIPPING THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THEN EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN NM. TO THE NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND EASTERN CO.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ATTENTION WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS STORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THESE AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO...REDUCING
MLCAPES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
ADVANCE OR DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME. THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE CONCERNS. ANY SUCH STORMS
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AN MCS THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AS THIS
MCS PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI VECTORS...IT MAY CLIP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT IF IT DOES...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS A LOW DROPPING
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PREVENTS THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM AMPLIFYING. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENT SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW/TROUGH APPEARS WEAK...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLS OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT
SIGNALS EXIST FOR ANOTHER MCS ROLLING OUT OF CO AND POSSIBLY
CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST CWA AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE AID
FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FROM TODAY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOLD THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRUGGLES TO
AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE PAC NW...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING WHETHER THE RIDGE SETS
UP MORE SQUARELY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST...LEAVING OPEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS CAN/T BE RULED
OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN REBOUND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT INCREASE WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RAIN
CHANCES...ALONG WITH GREEN UP OF FUELS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13