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000
FXUS64 KAMA 140940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT MANY MEANINGFUL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN MEXICO CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY OPEN AND EJECT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES. TO THE
NORTH...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NM...BUT THIS WILL STAY CLEAR OF
THE AREA AS WELL. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER HOT...DRY...BREEZY
DAY AS THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. THE LLJ WILL MIX OUT THIS
MORNING BUT THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL ELONGATE AS IT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP THE DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
SPARSE. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED POPS WESTWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. SOME CONVECTION MAY ALSO WORK IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...SO LITTLE
RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST...BUT
BRIEF STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN. THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
COMBINATION IN THE EAST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION ISOLATED. LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MAY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED WEAK
FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF STORMS. IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM KEEPS THE DRYLINE
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THINKING THE
DRYLINE WILL TEND TO MIX FARTHER EAST THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MIX THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
LATE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AS H85
TEMPS REACH VALUES OF 30-31C. AS THE UPPER TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS TO SEND A
WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER FRONT COMING
THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGHS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S. UNFORTUNATELY IT DOESN/T LOOK
LIKE THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO GENERATE
ANY PRECIP.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO 8 TO 20 PERCENT.
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE THURSDAY...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  58  91  58  97 /   0  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  94  59  90  61  88 /   0   5  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              92  55  88  56  91 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  95  63  91  61  96 /   0   5  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              92  57  94  58  98 /   0   5  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  91  58  92  58  97 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               91  62  90  62  91 /   5  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 91  52  89  55  93 /   0   5  20  20   5
GUYMON OK                  95  57  91  57  95 /   0   5  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  57  93  57  95 /   0  10  20  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                92  60  88  59  86 /   0   5  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   91  60  87  58  90 /   0  10  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                92  61  89  60  87 /   5  10  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  62  91  62  89 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08