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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171617 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1117 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING AMARILLO SAW THEIR FIRST 60-DEGREE DEW
POINTS ON THE YEAR THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. THE FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED,
BUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A GUYMON
TO PAMPA TO CLARENDON LINE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, AND THEY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 2 PM. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THE NEW RUNS OF THE RAP
AND NAM MIX THE DRY LINE TO A GUYMON TO BORGER TO AMARILLO LINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. ALSO, CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY ENDED UP BEING 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 11 AM
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE`VE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRY LINE. THIS MAY PUT RECORD HIGHS IN DANGER,
PARTICULARLY AT DALHART. EAST OF THE DRY LINE, IT`S POSSIBLE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WE`RE CURRENTLY FORECASTING,
ESPECIALLY IN HEMPHILL, WHEELER, AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES.

THE 4KM WRF AND A COUPLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE SSEO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 13-14 C. THE ONLY FORCING FOR
ASCENT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO,
AND THIS FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE, WE CONTINUED TO
KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND POINT-N-CLICK
FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD BUT DO NOT BELIEVE
IT WILL REACH KDHT. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE
EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT KAMA AND
KGUY. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 15Z AS THE DRYLINE
ADVANCES EASTWARD AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 15KT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD. HAVE INSERTED MVFR
CEILINGS FOR KAMA AND KGUY AS EARLY AS 3Z BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE
STRATUS MAY COME IN LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THE CATEGORY FOR KDHT BUT INSERTED A SCATTERED
MVFR DECK TO TREND TOWARDS THIS POSSIBILITY.

COMMUNICATION LINES REMAIN DOWN TO THE KDHT ASOS THIS MORNING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE TOTAL OBSERVATION CONCEPT FOR THE TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  PATCHY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.  DRYLINE ALONG
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO MIX
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT ONLY ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE REMAINING IN LOWER 90S
TO UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.  MORE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS DRYLINE
RETREATS.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN SECTIONS DURING AFTERNOON.  HAVE
TRIMMED SATURDAY EVENING POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
DUE TO EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE.

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID FRONTOLOSYS.  MODEST COOLING ON MONDAY
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO MAKE TUESDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST.   MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

SP/JJ