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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191838 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NM.
MOST GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 1000 J/KG /HIGHER INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT/...THEREBY MINIMIZING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES OF 500-900 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS /AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/...COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE A LITTLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK
AT KDHT AND KGUY FROM 20-01Z. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO APPROACH
THESE TERMINALS...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KAMA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AT KAMA WHERE
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AOB
10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.

THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.

FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/02