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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR BLDU AT KGUY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KAMA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE THREAT IS SLIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KDHT AND KAMA. AT KGUY...STRONG NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A PERIOD OF SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z
AT KAMA...KDHT...AND KGUY. KAMA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY TERMINAL
TO SEE TSRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT KDHT BETWEEN 18 AND
03Z...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS TO SWITCH FROM
SHOWERS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/03