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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200420 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRY TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF ANY ONE OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CHANGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY AROUND 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05