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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160431 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z KAMA TAF...THINK THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL THREAT BETWEEN 09
AND 15Z...OF BR AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO UPSLOPE
EASTERLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND DEW POINT IS ALREADY ABOVE 50. EVEN
STILL...HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS GIVEN THE LIGHT LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND LOW TONIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S. AFTER 15Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS WINDS...WHICH COULD BE
VRB OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY IF THE DRYLINE MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
EXPECTED.

FOR THE 06Z KDHT AND KGUY TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF TSRA DEVELOPS AFTER 21Z.
THE CHANCES ARE SLIM THOUGH...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY AT KGUY. THE WIND AT KGUY COULD BE VRB OR EVEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z IF THE DRYLINE MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. MOSTLY VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE VC OF KDHT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
02Z. EVEN IF ANY MOVE OVER KDHT THROUGH THAT TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACT ASIDE FROM BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL THREAT...MOSTLY AT KAMA...BETWEEN 09 AND
15Z OF LOW CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT
THAN BEFORE GIVEN LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO OUTSIDE OF ONE
MODEL SHOWING IT.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
REDUCE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PERCENT AND TWEAK HIGH
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI...GENERALLY IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD FASHION.

IN THE BATTLE OF DRYLINE CONVERGENCE VS CAPPING, CAPPING WILL BE THE
OVERALL WINNER THIS WEEK. IN GENERAL, DRYLINE CONVERGENCE JUST WON`T
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE COMBINATION OF CAPPING AND MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. DO STILL THINK THAT
A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SHRTWV COULD GIVE THE NRN AND ERN PANHANDLES
THE SLIGHTEST CHC OF A STORM THU AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, EXPECT EASTERN AREAS TO BE COOLER THAN WESTERN
AREAS FROM A DRY BULB PERSPECTIVE, THOUGH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL GIVE SIMILAR FEELING HOT DAYS THU
AND FRI. WITH THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER EASTWARD PUSH OF
THE DRYLINE THU AND FRI, HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS IN THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES, IN SOME CASES RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY.  BEHIND THE DRYLINE
(WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE AMARILLO), BOTH DAYS ARE SET TO SEE HOT TEMPS.
IN AREAS WHERE THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AND DOWNSLOPING WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THU AND UPR 90S TO
AROUND 100 FRI. HIGHS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOWS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD, MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SIMPSON

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: IT WON`T AS HOT AS FRIDAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS, BUT THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS RANGING NEAR 90 TO NEAR 100 IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
DRY LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA, THEY COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FARTHER EAST OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11