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000
FXUS64 KAMA 202054
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TOMORROW.

SIMPSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AS THE LAST OF ANY UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT/S BEEN STATIONED TO OUR NORTH THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WORKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
NEXT WESTERN UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT/RETREATS NORTH. SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RETURNS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT FORCING FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND NOT
MUCH SURFACE FOCUS AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LLJ MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS POINT BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL...AND BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY MIX EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE PRETTY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE...A GOOD VEERING PROFILE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS FORCING. GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE FORCING. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...BUT
THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY EITHER
SETTING UP IN EASTERN NM OR MIXING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ON ANY GIVEN
DAY GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY POSSIBILITY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER
MODEST /AVERAGING 30 KTS/ BUT SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS
WE SAW LAST WEEK.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THIS
EVENING...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL EITHER BE TOO LIGHT OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOO HIGH.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                87  50  79  54  90 /   5  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  84  51  80  49  86 /  20  20   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              76  45  77  48  87 /  20  20  10  10   5
BORGER TX                  88  53  80  58  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              87  52  81  53  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  87  51  80  52  90 /   5  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               91  54  81  56  91 /  10  10  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 79  45  77  48  90 /  10  20  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  81  47  80  49  88 /  20  20   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                86  51  80  52  90 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                86  54  81  51  87 /  20  20  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   87  51  78  54  90 /  10  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                94  56  81  56  88 /  20  10  10   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              94  58  83  58  92 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08