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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF
(AND THAT`S A BIG IF) STORMS CAN DEVELOP, ONE OR TWO COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKE ANOTHER GOOD BET AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF A GUYMON TO CANYON LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING AS A RESULT OF A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK NIL. WE`VE ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK AS THE WEAK DRY LINE
HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD LEVELS, BUT IT
WILL STILL BE TOASTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD, AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MODESTLY. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE
DRY LINE ENOUGH OOMPH TO QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD BY THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE DRY LINE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG UP IN THE
FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOLUTION. LIKE FRIDAY, STRONG CAPPING WILL NEED TO
BE OVERCOME, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK
OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM.
IF STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 1 AM. WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90
TO THE LOWER 100S.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY: A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE DRY LINE SHARPENS. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE STORMY PATTERN AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND INTO THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  97  65  97  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  60  89  66  98  61 /  10  10   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              56  96  58  92  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  63  95  68  97  61 /  10   5   0   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              58  99  62  95  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  98  63  96  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               65  93  68  99  62 /  10   5   0  20  10
DALHART TX                 55  98  58  92  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  59  93  63  98  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58 100  62  94  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                60  89  67  98  60 /  10  10   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   63  92  66  97  60 /  10   5   0  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                63  89  68 100  61 /  10  10   5  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              64  89  69 101  63 /  10  10   5  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

SP/JJ