000
FXUS64 KAMA 172112
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.

SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14