000
FXUS64 KAMA 191202 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LATEST TSTM COMPLEX IS TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...WITH KGUY MOST AFFECTED BY THE TSTMS AS OF THIS WRITING
AND KDHT THE LEAST OVERALL. KEPT A MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY FOR FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT AT KDHT AS MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THAT AREA. KAMA IS A CLOSE CALL WITH
PSBLTY OF STORMS GETTING CLOSE TO THIS TERMINAL SITE. AFTER THIS TSTM
COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WEATHER SHOULD BE BENIGN. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IF STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE ISOLD IN NATURE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INTRODUCE
TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE FOR LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING ACTING UPON A MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S/ HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO OK THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN LATER THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS RISE
LEADING TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES AND
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING NEAR THIS SURFACE
TROUGH DUE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH SINCE THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT CAN
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE AN LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE NWP
MODELS GENERATING QPF OVER THE AMA CWA...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
WEAK UPPER LIFT CAN BE PROVIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
PATTERN HOLDS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE MORE UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED NON
MENTIONABLE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT GREEN
UP SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 15 MPH...
PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$