000
FXUS64 KAMA 152036
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
336 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
REDUCE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PERCENT AND TWEAK HIGH
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI...GENERALLY IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD FASHION.

IN THE BATTLE OF DRYLINE CONVERGENCE VS CAPPING, CAPPING WILL BE THE
OVERALL WINNER THIS WEEK. IN GENERAL, DRYLINE CONVERGENCE JUST WON`T
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE COMBINATION OF CAPPING AND MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. DO STILL THINK THAT
A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SHRTWV COULD GIVE THE NRN AND ERN PANHANDLES
THE SLIGHTEST CHC OF A STORM THU AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, EXPECT EASTERN AREAS TO BE COOLER THAN WESTERN
AREAS FROM A DRY BULB PERSPECTIVE, THOUGH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL GIVE SIMILAR FEELING HOT DAYS THU
AND FRI. WITH THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER EASTWARD PUSH OF
THE DRYLINE THU AND FRI, HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS IN THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES, IN SOME CASES RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY.  BEHIND THE DRYLINE
(WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE AMARILLO), BOTH DAYS ARE SET TO SEE HOT TEMPS.
IN AREAS WHERE THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AND DOWNSLOPING WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THU AND UPR 90S TO
AROUND 100 FRI. HIGHS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOWS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD, MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SIMPSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: IT WON`T AS HOT AS FRIDAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS, BUT THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS RANGING NEAR 90 TO NEAR 100 IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
DRY LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA, THEY COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FARTHER EAST OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  94  61 100  65 /  10  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  63  87  63  91  67 /  10  20  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              57  90  54  94  60 /  10  20  20   5   5
BORGER TX                  64  93  62  96  66 /  10  20  20   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              58  95  56  98  65 /  10  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  58  94  59  99  66 /  10  10  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               61  88  63  97  66 /  10  20  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 54  90  52  97  58 /  10  20  20   0   5
GUYMON OK                  57  92  58  91  61 /  10  20  20   5   5
HEREFORD TX                57  94  59 101  65 /  10  10  10   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                62  85  62  88  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   61  88  60  93  63 /  10  20  20   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                62  86  63  90  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              62  88  64  93  68 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ