000
FXUS64 KAMA 252106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
406 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMALL CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS DEVELOPMENT
WAS FAIRLY CAPTURED BY THE TTU WRF. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT IS THAT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALSO GIVEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
LOW END SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ONGOING DROUGHT HAS
LIMITED FUEL LOADING IN THIS AREA...AND THE RECENT RAINS FROM LAST
NIGHT HAS PROVIDED DECENT MOISTURE TO WHAT FUELS THERE ARE. ANOTHER
WRENCH IN THE MACHINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
ANY STORMS THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THAT AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS
AREA RECEIVE NO RAIN TONIGHT THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR EVEN A RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY COULD ALSO BE A DAY WHERE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCUR...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SHOULD ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTS THEN
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE GREATLY HINDERED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE TIME FRAME WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH
THAT BEING SAID THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WHAT
APPEARED YESTERDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
ON A CONSENSUS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL
DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING. TREND WISE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK
TOWARD THE GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM SO HAVE LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS RATHER THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS EVOLUTION AN OPEN
WAVE WILL DROP OVER NEVADA AND UTAH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SPARKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN WAVE MOVES TO THE
PANHANDLES AND TAKES ON A VERY SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
ORIENTATION WOULD PLACE THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHILE CONVECTION FIRES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES. CAPE VALUES AT THIS TIME RANGE
FROM 1500 TO 2200 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP WHICH COULD BE THE SAVINGS GRACE TO KEEP
SEVERE WEATHER LIMITED. BUT SHOULD THE SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERCOME
THIS CAP THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AS STATED
YESTERDAY KEEP ANY EYE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS IT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THESE DAYS.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES. INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND
DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR THIS AREA BELOW 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. GIVEN THE LOW
FUEL LOADS DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT...THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT IN
THIS AREA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TONIGHT HAS LEAD TO SOME
CONCERN WHERE A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO THE GOOD
STATE OF FUELS. WITH THAT SAID IF PRECIP DOES NOT OCCUR TONIGHT THEN
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT WITH 15 TO 20 MPH 20 FOOT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14