Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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833 FXUS64 KAMA 110804 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 304 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Some showers will try to make their way into the TX Panhandle from northeastern NM, but not expecting them to make it much further past a line drawn north to south from Dalhart. Additional showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms are favored to develop in western TX/northeastern NM and move northeastward later this morning through the afternoon through much of the CWA. Given expected widespread cloud coverage and rain through the day, have lowered highs across much of the area; some locations in the far western Panhandles may not reach 60 degrees today. Much of the first round of showers and thunderstorms will move out of the Panhandles in the evening. CAMs diverge regarding how widespread any shower/thunderstorm activity will be tonight (Saturday night), likely owing to differing strength/location of subtle forcing mechanisms. But there are some decent geopotential height falls through the night which suggests enough forcing should be in place for a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms through the night. There are hints that mid-level lapse rates will steepen overnight as the upper-level trough crawls toward the Panhandles, thus some small hail would be possible with stronger updrafts. This round of showers and thunderstorms may continue into a portion of the morning in the southeastern Panhandles. A surface low is favored to develop during the day Sunday in eastern NM which should introduce southwesterly to westerly winds in the southwestern TX Panhandle and southeasterly to easterly winds in the eastern combined Panhandles which will set up a surface trough somewhere in the area by afternoon. NAM is farthest west with the surface trough (west of Amarillo) while GFS is farthest east (in the vicinity of Pampa), and ECMWF is just slightly further west of GFS. Given that showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning in the eastern TX Panhandle, there is naturally some concern that clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. If this happens, there may be capping concerns that could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in that area. The better chance for thunderstorms that may be strong to severe would be in the areas that are less rainy/cloudy throughout the day which seems to be in the northern combined Panhandles at this time, but will certainly have to monitor the eastern Panhandles as that appears to be where conditions will be most favorable. The surface low will move eastward Sunday night which will help bring a weak cold front through the Panhandles. Some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may continue in the eastern Panhandles Sunday night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Based off the latest 11/00Z model and numerical updates, a low amplitude sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather pattern throughout the long term forecast period. With that said, we will start off with leftover showers and storms on MOnday across the eastern Panhandles as the main system departs to the east. A break in the activity under a larger area of subsidence as a H500 ridge moves into the region on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. A broad H500 trough should traverse across the Four Corners Region Wednesday night through Thursday. Out ahead of the main trough Wednesday afternoon and evening, sufficient instability, shear, and lift from a cold front moving through, should all be present for a larger coverage for the potential of thunderstorms, where some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Will get more details of elements and timing as we get closer to the middle of next week. Dry conditions then return to end the work week as the main H500 trough quickly exits the southern High Plains Thursday night. High temperatures should remain above average for the majority of the forecast period, with the exception on Thursday in the wake of the cold front where temperatures will be below average. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated until the early evening hours when MVFR ceilings will move in. There`s a chance for rain during the afternoon hours, but currently the greater confidence in coverage will wait for the evening hours. Can`t rule out some thunderstorms but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 69 52 72 50 / 60 70 80 30 Beaver OK 79 52 73 50 / 40 60 90 60 Boise City OK 67 47 72 46 / 80 70 80 30 Borger TX 76 54 77 51 / 60 70 90 50 Boys Ranch TX 70 52 77 48 / 70 80 70 30 Canyon TX 67 51 74 48 / 60 70 70 30 Clarendon TX 71 53 69 52 / 60 60 90 50 Dalhart TX 65 48 74 45 / 80 80 70 20 Guymon OK 73 50 74 48 / 60 70 90 50 Hereford TX 67 52 76 48 / 70 80 60 20 Lipscomb TX 78 54 72 52 / 30 70 90 70 Pampa TX 73 53 71 50 / 50 60 90 50 Shamrock TX 75 54 68 52 / 40 60 90 70 Wellington TX 75 54 68 54 / 40 60 90 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...52