Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
849 FXAK69 PAFG 101042 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 242 AM AKDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... No significant change to the forecast as shower chances continue for the next several days. Winds through the AK Range passes will increase from the south today with gusts up to 45 mph expected through early tomorrow morning. Winds along the NW Arctic Coast will be weakening today as a low near Utqiagvik drifts north and weakens. The West Coast will be experiencing slightly modified temperatures this weekend with the Interior and North Slope remain nearly stationary. A Flood Watch continues for an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Level Analysis... The 00z model suite initialized fairly well aloft. Currently, a 529 decameter low is sitting between Point Lay and Wainwright. To the east-northeast there is a 546 decameter high which extends south through Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. A 519 decameter low is centered over Unalaska with a string of energy extending north into SW AK, and east into the Gulf of Alaska towards Yakutat. There is also shortwave energy over the Yukon which is moving from south to north while much weaker energy sits over the Interior. The string of energy over the Gulf of Alaska will surge northward today providing gusty southerly gap flow. Surface Analysis... A 984 mb low over Unalaska will weaken and move east to the AK Peninsula Saturday evening. A 1003 mb low is moving east over the Yukon out of our area. A 1008 mb low over Wainwright will drift north today and out of the area by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Interior today with isolated rain and snow showers along the West Coast and North Slope. This trend of isolated showers continues for Sunday and Monday as well. West Coast and Western Interior... Rain and snow showers today will be around today, mostly from St. Lawrence Island northeast, while most of the area from Unalakleet southward remains dry. On Saturday, isolated rain and snow showers continue at times, but far less in the way of coverage area. Temperatures will moderate slightly this weekend with highs head back into the mid to upper 30s for highs along the coast from Nome south, and near 50 inland. Temperatures from Wales northward will remain quite chilly with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Central and Eastern Interior... Rain showers will be around the Interior once again with a slight chance for thunderstorms around Arctic Village this afternoon. The Interior dries out a bit on Saturday with the greatest likelihood for showers being over the Brooks Range. On Sunday, it becomes a bit more active in the Interior with scattered showers around Fairbanks and numerous rain showers and periods of rain in the Eastern Interior. It is a bit uncertain right now, but there may be a slight chance for thunder within these showers as well. Temperatures will remain nearly stationary with highs in the 50s to near 60 this weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range... Areas of light snow continue southwest of Wainwright to the Western Brooks Range. The snow will end tonight into tomorrow morning outside of a few lingering flurries. Otherwise, mostly quiet weather persists. Isolated rain and snow showers will develop over the Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon and evening. A few of them may drift north to the coast, but they will be spotty, so most locations remain dry. The greatest likelihood for rain or snow showers will be from Deadhorse west tomorrow morning through midday as a weak wave of energy moves through from south to north. Then tomorrow evening, another round of showers develops in the Eastern Brooks Range and these have the potential to lift north early Sunday morning as a front pushes through. Otherwise, the chances for isolated showers continues into the beginning of next week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend. The thunderstorm threat will shift north for Friday with areas around Arctic Village seeing the greatest potential for storms, around 5 to 10 percent. Isolated to scattered showers will remain throughout the weekend as more disturbances move through the area. Southerly gap winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are forecast Friday night and Saturday morning from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction. Near- critical fire weather conditions are possible with Minimum RH values of 20 to 30%. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon, but may be pushed out longer depending on what the Riverwatch team observes today. As of yesterday evening, a persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. Water levels have been holding steady both below and above the ice jam. This has led to some minor overbank flooding on the south side of the river, near the upper end of the jam, approximately 20 miles upstream from Circle. The flood risk at Circle has been gradually decreasing as the ice slowly clears out of the braided channels. The ice on the Yukon River between Circle and Fort Yukon continues to break up slowly. Many minor jams were observed between Circle and Fort Yukon. Water is high, covering gravel bars and into the willows, but no overbank flooding has been observed. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806. && $$ Bianco