902
FXUS65 KGGW 142048
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
248 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- There will be repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms
  over the next several days.

- Gusty winds up to 35 mph are possible beginning this Friday.

- Temperatures will be near normal this week before a 10-degree
  cool down on Saturday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The current short-wave disturbance will continue to move through
our region through this evening. The weather pattern into the
remainder of this week remains from the WNW. This will allow for
the development of numerous and repeated chances for showers and
thunderstorms through early next week.

Each afternoon and evening period brings chances for
precipitation, followed by calmer conditions during the overnight
and early morning hours.

Beyond Thursday, models and ensembles agree on cooler
temperatures on Saturday with the upper trough. Otherwise, the
timing of precipitation varies so much between the models and
ensembles, that the NBM generally broad-brushes a widespread
precipitation probability of 20-50 percent every day into next
week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:
High confidence exists on the general temperature trend this week.
North to NW winds this afternoon will be borderline for a Lake
Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake but wind speeds today would have
to exceed the NBM 90 to meet Lake Wind criteria of 20 mph for 3+
hours which means that there is less than a 10 percent chance of
occurring at this point.

There is low confidence on the timing of showers and
thunderstorms, as well as the total amount of rain for any
particular location.

Did not deviate from the base forecast at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2045Z, Tuesday afternoon, May 14th

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR

DISCUSSION: Afternoon low-level cumulus clouds are expected to
become more widespread as the evening wears on. Some scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible, but are
expected to be confined to areas well southwest of our NE MT TAF
sites.

Skies will vary from SCT-BKN tonight with varying amounts of low
and mid level clouds. NBM does bring IFR-MVFR ceilings into North
Dakota and the NE corner of Montana overnight which may impact
KSDY around 12z Wednesday.

WINDS: From the north this afternoon around 15 to 18 kts, becoming
near calm overnight. Wednesday a light west wind will set up
around 10 kts.

----BMickelson



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow