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000
FNUS73 KMPX 251106
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Burn Unit 8E, 9, 11...US FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
606 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Southeast winds will pick up in strength today, with gusts up to around 25
mph expected this afternoon. These southeast winds will bring in warmer
temperatures, with highs expected to reach into the upper 60s. These warmer
temperatures will also help drive afternoon humidities down, with RH values
dipping down into the upper 20s possible there in the Sherburne NWR. Rain
will hold off at the refuge until Friday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 15
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /15000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /104200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (112000 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  55  58  60  63  65  66  67  67  66  65  62
RH..............52  45  44  41  36  34  33  32  32  33  34  36
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  15  15  14  14
20 FT wind gust.16  18  20  22  23  24  23  22  23  23  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.3 1.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  17  21  23  24  24  23  24  24  23  20
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (113300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (13100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (50000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 29 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Griesinger
Requested by...Kris Larson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412400.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kris_larson@fws.gov