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000
FXUS65 KABQ 180003 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
603 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

In conjunction with NWS PUB and AMA, brought the backdoor cold
front into the eastern plains during the evening hours rather than
late night and early morning hours. Wind gusts around 40 mph are
likely tonight around Clayton, where low clouds could obscure the
sky by as early as midnight then linger into early Thursday
morning. The question is, how far south and west will the low
clouds go? It`s tough to say, but we do know models are notorious
for bringing cool season backdoor cold fronts in too slowly and
not progressing them into NM far enough. There is a fair chance
that the low clouds will reach Tucumcari and possibly Las Vegas by
sunrise, but this update kept them to the north and east of these
locations. Also, lowered overnight low temperatures a few degrees
across northeast and east central areas due to the faster arrival
of the front. Additional forecast updates will be possible as the
front begins moving into the state and models get a better handle
on it.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A back-door cold front, initially arriving tomorrow, will
interrupt our warm, breezy springtime pattern, especially for
areas along and east of the central mountain chain, through
Saturday. Cooler temperatures, patchy late night/early morning
fog, and light rain are likely behind the front. A moderate east
canyon wind is likely Friday night into early Saturday as the
front receives a reinforcing push. An upper-level disturbance
interacting with the moisture along the front may allow for a few
thunderstorms in the central part of New Mexico on Saturday as
well. Drier and warming conditions return for the early part of
next week, though another back-door front looks to edge into the
northeast portion of the state next Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly clear skies tonight with above average temperatures
prevailing. A stout upper low touring the US/CAN border will kick a
backdoor front down the Great Plains today, with the frontal
boundary entering into northeastern NM tonight around 12Z. Gusty
northerly winds will accompany this front as it surges southwestward
across the eastern plains throughout the day on Thursday. Cooler
temperatures will be felt in the front`s wake, bringing daytime
highs across the eastern plains down 10F to 20F compared to today`s
readings. Challenge lies in how far the front will progress, but did
blend temps to the cooler side of guidance. Elsewhere, a few degrees
of warming can be expected amongst sunny to partly cloudy skies. The
front will continue surging westward, flirting with the east slopes
of the central mts and the chain`s gaps Thursday night. A gentle
turn to east is likely very late in the night into early Friday
morning. Lows across the RGV and westward will be generally
unaffected by this frontal spillage. Minimum temps across the
central mts and eastward will see a few degrees of cooling to
overnight lows compared to Wednesday night`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The aforementioned back-door cold front temporarily washes
out/retreats north and east as S/SW winds re-establish across much
of the state by around mid-day on Friday. This should yield
another warm spring day, with temperatures topping out 8-12 deg F
above normal along west of the central mountain chain, with the
far eastern Plains remaining 5-8 degrees below normal. For Friday
evening and into the overnight, the back-door front is given a
second, stronger push via high pressure building southward in the
southern Plains. All indications are that the easterly push will
at least reach the central mountains and push through the gaps,
with the NAM in particular taking the boundary further west,
toward the Continental Divide, on Saturday. Higher confidence
impacts are for at least patchy fog and rain across the eastern
plains, due to moist upslope flow, with the highest amounts along
the Texas border where a few tenths of an inch may accumulate.
Also relatively high confidence on at least moderate east canyon
winds for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas. Went above NBM
guidance and blended in MOS in these areas, with current forecast
indicating easterly winds of 25mph with gusts to around 35mph.
Without a well-defined low center in SE Arizona, a stronger east
wind is not expected at this time, but will have to watch.

More medium confidence on thunderstorm development roughly along
the Rio Grande Valley during the day on Saturday. Guidance points
to ribbon of MUCAPE values reaching 500-1000 J/kg along and just
behind the frontal boundary...though this could end up being west
of the Albuquerque metro. Low-level moisture from the east wind,
combined with a modest upper-level short-wave trough should be
enough to kick off a few thunderstorms where instability permits.
Deep-layer shear (easterlies below westerlies) could reach 40-50
knots, but lack of mid-level moisture might be the limiting
factor, at least for coverage. Upshot is that mentionable PoP`s
were pulled westward a bit from NBM guidance into the RGV for
Saturday afternoon.

Moisture should mostly get scoured out on Sunday, on deeper WNW
flow aloft. A few showers may hang on in the northern mountains,
however. A warming trend also commences, with 80-degree readings
returning to the mid/lower RGV and temps recovering as much as
15-20 degrees from Saturday`s highs in the eastern Plains. Rather
warm temperatures continue through next Wednesday, as  quasi-
zonal or SW flow aloft continues. One exception in NE New Mexico
where another back-door cold front slips in Monday night. Nil
precipitation is expected after Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A gusty backdoor cold front will dive southwestward through the
eastern plains tonight, accompanied by low clouds producing MVFR
conditions that could potentially reach as far south as TCC and
west as LVS by sunrise Thursday morning. Confidence was too low to
include in the LVS and TCC 00Z TAFs. Otherwise, high clouds will
increase tonight, then cover most of the forecast area through
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A backdoor front surging down eastern New Mexico tonight into
tomorrow will bring much needed improvement to moisture. The
northeast and east central plains will see min RH settle in the 20
to 30 percent range, while zones to west remain critically dry in
the low double digit to single digit values. Breezy conditions
across northern New Mexico will create elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions for the Upper Rio Grande Valley Thursday
afternoon. Improved moisture will surge south and westward, bringing
slightly greater coverage to the improved min RH on Friday.
Unfortunately, highland zones and westward will still remain
critically dry, with widespread single digit RH prevailing. Winds
will work to limit critical fire weather conditions but elevated to
near critical conditions will still prevail across all zones west of
the plains. Localized critical fire weather conditions may exist
across portions of the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, their adjacent highlands, and the Upper Rio Grande Valley
Friday afternoon. Moisture will make another push westward on
Saturday, reaching into the Rio Grande Valley, while areas along the
Continental Divide and westward continue to see critical dry
conditions. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase in the
afternoon across the eastern plains and along the ridgeline of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Good recoveries and increased min RH
will hang on through Sunday, before dry air intrudes into the region
again, bringing min RH values back into the teens to single digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  37  74  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  33  76  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  72  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  33  76  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  78  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  75  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  34  79  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  46  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  67  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  46  72  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  32  63  32  64 /   0   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  64  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  73  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  71  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  41  80  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  40  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  83  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  45  85  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  47  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  44  84  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  46  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  44  84  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  47  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  46  76  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  43  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  78  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  40  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  44  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  76  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  62  34  67 /   0   5   0   0
Raton...........................  35  71  33  74 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  37  72  36  75 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  41  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  59  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  43  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  73  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  44  77  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  45  74  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  44  76  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  46  81  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  91  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  85  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  84  46  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...44