Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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940 FXUS65 KABQ 092020 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A cooler and wetter pattern along with wet mountain peak snow is expected through Sunday thanks to a cutoff low pulling some Gulf moisture west into the state. The backdoor front across eastern NM will be reinforced later this evening pushing through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Albuquerque Metro bringing an very strong east winds, especially below canyon openings late Thursday evening into Friday morning. High wind gusts of 60 mph possible before tapering off midday Friday. Shower and storm coverage looks to peak for most areas Saturday before tapering off and limited to the higher terrain and northeast areas Sunday though Tuesday. Another uptick in coverage is possible Wednesday before drier and warmer weather returns late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper trough over the Great Basin has successfully closed off into an upper low and is evident on water vapor imagery spinning over southern UT. Position of the low alongside the continued westward progression of today`s backdoor front will set the stage for another round of canyon winds across the central valleys tonight, this time with more vigor than this morning`s winds. The pattern lends itself to winds over-performing and in the presence of a tight density gradient between the RGV and eastern highlands, it seems likely that the ABQ metro could see sustained wind speeds and gusts around 35 and 50 kts, respectively. As such, did opt to upgrade the already issued High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for tonight through tomorrow morning. Enhanced orographic lift amongst increased moisture and upslope flow will give rise to isolated to scattered rain and snow showers this evening through tomorrow night across northern NM. Unseasonably cold, this activity could drop a few to several inches of snow in the northern mts above 9,000 ft. The additional moisture will lead to a healthy blanket of clouds tomorrow across eastern NM, bringing daytime highs down a 3F to 10F lower than today`s readings. Afternoon temperatures as a whole will trend below to well below normal nearly all locales. The backdoor front will get another reinforcing push Friday night, resulting in another east canyon wind across the middle RGV, though not to the same extent as tonight`s. Near normal overnight temperatures will persist and precipitation will favor the central mts and their adjacent highlands. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 On Saturday, a backdoor front will be through the Continental Divide with higher moisture along and east of the front. The upper low (near Las Vegas, NV Saturday morning) starts to jog more to the east to the Four Corners region opening up as it does so mixing the backdoor front back east.Surface high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley will allow winds to veer to a southerly to southeasterly direction across central and eastern NM with drier westerly flow across western NM. PWATs across eastern NM increase to 0.75 to 0.9 inches as a result. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across northern, central, and eastern NM Saturday afternoon and evening, with much lower chances across far western and southwestern areas due to the drier air moving in. However, morning cloud cover across the eastern plains and well below normal temperatures (15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms)could actually limit instability for widespread showers and storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms across northeast NM look to last well into the overnight hours as the low moves to eastern CO and northeast NM. With the added surface moisture, very low dewpoint depressions and light winds, low clouds along with patchy fog could be possible along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and eastern plains before drier westerly flow moves in during the mid morning hours. The upper low continues moving into the central and southern high plains Sunday. Temperatures will be much warmer and just slightly below average across eastern NM thanks to the westerly flow on the backside of the upper low. PWATs around 0.4 to 0.6 inches wrapping around the southern flank of the upper low across the northern mountains and northeast NM will still allow for some isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Skies will clear after sunset Sunday as the low exits east into the Great Plains and upper level ridging moves into the central and southern Rockies. Weak upper level ridging will be over New Mexico Monday with temperatures warming to near seasonal reading for mid May. However, some mid level moisture looks to be trapped under the ridge. This will allow some afternoon to evening showers and storms, more of the drier variety due to higher dewpoint depressions, to develop across the northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Activity and clouds should quickly dissipate shortly after sunset. A baggy upper low moves into the desert SW on Tuesday with temperatures across the state slightly above normal. Daytime heating will allow for some showers and storms to develop across the northern and western high terrain during the afternoon and evening hours dissipating after sunset. The baggy low phases with a northern stream trough moving into northern and central Rockies on Wednesday. The deterministic models differ on the exact phasing and thus how far south the trough digs. Therefore, a backdoor front could move into northeast NM (GFS) or there could be return flow across eastern NM (ECMWF). PWATS across eastern NM look to increase to around 0.7 to 0.9 inches. The NBM seems to favor the GFS solution with better precipitation chances thus across northeast NM. Drier northwest flow moves in Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A backdoor front continues to bring impacts to aviation through the TAF period. Brisk ely winds currently at KABQ will taper and turn sly towards the aftn. Moist upslope flow will give rise to shwrs and tstms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts aft 09/20Z, spreading to nern NM toward the evening hours. MVFR with lcl IFR cigs are expected to develop overnight along the east slopes with some potential for brief MVFR cigs at KSAF. A more robust ely canyon wind will take shape aft 10/03Z across the central Rio Grande Valley, including KABQ, where gusts of 40 to 50 kts will be possible overnight and into tomorrow morning. Sely gusts of 30 to 40 kts will also be possible in and around KSAF during this time period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are expected during the forecast period. A pattern change will bring increased increased moisture across northern and eastern New Mexico. Wetting rainfall chances increase tonight through early next week, particularly along the central mountains and eastward. While minimum relative humidity improves across the Rio Grande Valley and eastward, the west will remain quite dry, with minimum values in the low double digits to teens. Cooler and unsettled weather will persist for most areas until warming brings temperatures above average areawide by Tuesday. Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to excellent through early next week, with areas west of the central mountains seeing the best vent rates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 70 43 71 / 10 20 20 30 Dulce........................... 32 63 33 65 / 60 70 40 60 Cuba............................ 36 64 38 66 / 20 30 20 60 Gallup.......................... 29 70 33 71 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 33 67 37 67 / 0 5 5 20 Grants.......................... 31 70 34 70 / 0 10 5 30 Quemado......................... 33 71 36 71 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 42 73 45 73 / 0 5 20 30 Datil........................... 36 70 39 69 / 0 0 10 20 Reserve......................... 32 75 34 76 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 45 79 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 57 33 58 / 70 80 50 80 Los Alamos...................... 42 60 43 62 / 40 40 30 80 Pecos........................... 38 58 40 56 / 40 30 50 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 54 38 57 / 80 60 50 90 Red River....................... 29 48 31 51 / 90 70 50 90 Angel Fire...................... 27 48 30 52 / 90 50 50 90 Taos............................ 33 60 34 63 / 70 50 40 80 Mora............................ 34 51 37 53 / 80 50 40 90 Espanola........................ 41 68 43 71 / 50 30 30 80 Santa Fe........................ 42 61 44 63 / 50 30 50 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 65 44 67 / 30 20 40 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 70 50 73 / 10 20 30 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 72 51 75 / 10 10 20 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 75 49 77 / 5 10 20 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 73 49 74 / 10 10 20 50 Belen........................... 42 78 46 79 / 0 10 20 50 Bernalillo...................... 47 72 49 75 / 10 10 20 60 Bosque Farms.................... 43 76 46 78 / 5 10 20 50 Corrales........................ 46 73 48 76 / 10 10 20 60 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 46 78 / 5 10 20 50 Placitas........................ 46 66 48 70 / 20 10 30 60 Rio Rancho...................... 47 71 49 74 / 10 10 20 60 Socorro......................... 47 82 50 82 / 0 5 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 61 44 64 / 20 20 30 70 Tijeras......................... 43 65 45 68 / 20 20 30 70 Edgewood........................ 41 63 43 66 / 20 20 30 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 65 41 67 / 10 10 30 70 Clines Corners.................. 37 58 40 57 / 20 10 40 70 Mountainair..................... 40 69 44 69 / 10 10 30 60 Gran Quivira.................... 39 70 43 71 / 10 10 30 60 Carrizozo....................... 47 75 50 76 / 5 5 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 41 66 45 67 / 5 10 30 60 Capulin......................... 36 54 38 53 / 80 40 30 80 Raton........................... 36 56 39 55 / 90 50 30 80 Springer........................ 39 57 42 56 / 80 40 30 80 Las Vegas....................... 38 56 40 52 / 70 30 50 90 Clayton......................... 43 62 43 62 / 40 20 20 60 Roy............................. 43 60 45 56 / 60 30 40 80 Conchas......................... 50 68 51 62 / 50 20 40 80 Santa Rosa...................... 46 66 47 59 / 40 10 40 80 Tucumcari....................... 46 69 47 63 / 30 10 30 80 Clovis.......................... 48 71 50 62 / 10 5 30 70 Portales........................ 48 72 50 64 / 10 5 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 48 71 50 62 / 20 10 30 70 Roswell......................... 54 75 56 68 / 5 5 40 50 Picacho......................... 47 69 50 66 / 5 10 30 50 Elk............................. 43 69 47 70 / 0 5 30 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...12