475
FXAK69 PAFG 292221
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to be in good
agreement through the extended period. The ECMWF has had run to
run consistency, but the evolution of the upper pattern continues
to be the outlier for mid week. An upper low will track out of the
Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday, with a
secondary upper low across the Bering Sea and moving into the Gulf
of Alaska through the end of the week. Upper troughing will
continue across the North Slope through much of the period.
Southerly flow looks to increase across Interior Alaska by next
week with moisture advecting northward and bringing better chances
for precipitation. In addition, the southerly flow will lead to
increased Chinook winds to the Alaska Range, with elevated fire
weather concerns beginning Thursday and persisting into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weak energy will continue to lift across Interior Alaska through
Tuesday with isolated showers continuing from near Tok, northwest
to areas south of Fairbanks. These showers will continue to be
very spotty, and QPF amounts will be low for those areas that do
see precipitation. Temperatures will also be cooler Tuesday into
Wednesday, with lower 40s to mid 50s across the Interior.
Southerly flow will increase across Interior Alaska as the Bering
Sea low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring increased
moisture for the Interior, along with better chances for showers
from Friday through Sunday. Southerly flow will also lead to
increasing Chinook winds along the northern slopes of the Alaska
Range. Gap winds and wind prone areas will see wind gusts
increasing to the 30 to 50 mph range, especially Friday and
Saturday. Daytime humidity values will fall to around 15 to 20
percent from mid to late week, with elevated fire weather
conditions expected. The Chinook winds will also allow
temperatures to warm back to near 60 near Fairbanks.

An Arctic cold front will continue to impact the North Slope
through mid to late week.  Temperatures will continue to be cold,
with daytime highs in the teens and 20s. Periods of light snow,
fog and low stratus will continue through Friday. Winds will will
be on the increase by next weekend, with gusts 20 to 30 mph
possible. This will likely lead to areas of blowing snow, along
with continued fog and low stratus.

High pressure over the Yukon Delta will shift southeast away from
the region by Wednesday. Moisture wrapping around the first Bering
Sea low will spread into the Yukon Delta by Wednesday. Coastal
areas will be cold enough for snow, while inland areas see period
of rain. This will be a quick shot of precipitation given the seed
of the upper low moving into the Gulf of Alaska. A brief break is
expected on Thursday before the next Bering Sea low moves across
the north Aleutians. A frontal boundary will bring more widespread
showers to the West Coast Friday into Saturday. This shower
activity will shift east by Sunday as the upper low moves into the
Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures will remain cool with 30s to 40s
across the West Coast. Winds will also be on the increase from
Friday into the weekend across the Bering Strait and coastal
areas. Winds look to gust 20 to 30 mph through the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slightly higher cooler temperatures will keep humidity values a
bit elevated through Wednesday, falling into the 20 percent range
Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoon. Chinook winds will increase
across the area Thursday into Saturday. Winds will increase, with
gap wind prone areas seeing gusts 30 to 50 mph Friday and
Saturday. Humidity values will also fall to near 15 percent
Thursday into Saturday and temperatures will warm back into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across the Tanana Valley. Showers will not
produce wetting rains until the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$