626
FXAK67 PAJK 091404
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
604 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Frontal band to move
through Southeast Alaska today. Expecting about 2 to 3 inches of
rain through though tonight from the front. This should bump up
streams and river levels through the panhandle, however, expect
them to stay within the banks. Lower water levels in rivers and
streams to start and snow levels below most of the higher snow
covered terrain will limit the snowmelt to add to the runoff.

Gusty winds for the outer coasts ahead of the front. Inner
channels, especially the northern inner channels will increase
this morning into the evening will result in gusts of 40 to 45 mph
for several area communities including Juneau, Haines, and
Skagway.

A recent addition this morning weather is the midlevel (approx 10-13
kft) instability in the moisture band. Lightning detection found
handful of strikes over far northern Glacier Bay and Northwestern
BC, that I suspect orographic lifting over the Saint Elias Range
sparked a couple of embedded thunderstorms. Will be updating
forecasts to add to that area for this morning.


.LONG TERM...The start of the long term will remain wet as the remnants
of the heavy rain from Thursday will continue to impact the
panhandle before exiting. High pressure will briefly move through
the gulf bringing an end to rain for most locations. With the rain
moving out, we will see some drying across the area although
there is the chance for some isolated showers during the day on
Saturday. Temperatures during this time look to be the warmest on
Saturday as we see the least amount of clouds over the area during
this time. Clouds and chances of rain start to increase across
the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday as the area of high
pressure that transited through the area exits the region and
another low starts to move in from the west. This system will
bring more increased winds and rain to the panhandle just in time
for the start of next week. As we head into the Monday and
Tuesday, the wet weather looks to remain around the area allowing
for a continued unsettled pattern. With the unsettled and active
weather, temperatures look to remain cooler than normal for the
mid to long range.

&&

.AVIATION...Another front bringing moderate to heavy rain will
lead to continued widespread MVFR and IFR conditions through the
morning hours Thursday. Heaviest rain rain will move from north to
south through the day with greatest VIS reductions following suit.
LLWS is anticipated along with strong winds at the surface.
Overall conditions will improve to high end MVFR for the northern
half of the panhandle by the evening hours with clearing skies
through the latter half of Friday.

&&

.MARINE...A narrow band of gale force winds along the outer
waters early Thursday with Small Craft winds increasing to 25 to
30 kts for most of the inner channels from around Midday through
this evening. Wind will relax late Thursday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon
     for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-651-
     652-661-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...STJ

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