418
FXUS61 KAKQ 060551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
151 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...

Shower activity continues to diminish this evening with the
loss of diurnal instability. However, light showers will
continue to be possible through tonight and into early Mon
morning (along the coast). CAMs are doing a poor job resolving
the current convection and therefore have lower than normal
confidence in the PoP forecast tonight. That being said, the
greatest chance for redeveloping showers is across S portions of
the FA S of US-460 due to a shortwave lingering across NC
overnight. These showers gradually move E overnight with a
decrease in coverage expected as time progresses. Temps as of
750 PM ranged from the upper 60s to around 70F for most. Given
widespread cloud cover and WAA, expect lows to remain mild in
the low-mid 60s for most. Additionally, given the recent
rainfall today, patchy to widespread fog is expected to develop
inland (mainly after midnight) with lowest VIS across the
Piedmont. Locally dense fog is possible. A secondary area of fog
is possible across the Atlantic side of the MD Eastern Shore
overnight as CAMs show the potential for marine layer fog to
move onshore. Any fog should burn off by mid morning Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday
  through Wednesday

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid
  conditions

Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will
persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in
a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off
and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally
diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late
evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon,
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows
values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore,
severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two.
Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and
humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening
showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will
be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for Wed into Thu
evening, then drier air and closer to normal temps will return
for Fri through Sun. Stronger 500 mb flow combined with
shortwave energy/sfc trough will likely result in the potential
for strong or severe storms Thu into Thu evening. A cold front
and upper trough will then push across the region Fri through
Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Except
for slight or small chances for showers Sat through Sun, near or
slightly below normal temps and more comfortable humidity will
prevail. Highs will range through the 80s Thu, in the mid to
upper 70s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Shower activity continues to continues to decrease in coverage
and intensity. However, light showers will continue to be
possible through the rest of tonight and into the early morning
(along the coast) at all terminals. BKN/OVC sky cover lingers
through Mon night with CIGs initially VFR/MVFR (intermittent IFR
at RIC). CIGs gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR from W
to E through the rest of the night with IFR CIGs at SBY/RIC/PHF
likely before sunrise. RIC is starting to see some IFR CIGs
already, but SBY and ORF should hold off until ~8-10z. CIGs
improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR Mon afternoon.
Additionally, given the rain today, patchy to widespread fog is
expected to develop inland early this morning with IFR/MVFR
VIS. The lowest VIS is expected to be across the Piedmont,
however, it may reach as far as RIC. Any fog quickly lifts by
Mon morning. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are
likely Mon afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light
and variable overnight (S/SE), becoming SW/SSW 5-10 kt Mon
(highest along the coast).

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through
Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn,
with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into
central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas
are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The
warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind
becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by
Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt
through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will
be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as
the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger
cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern
  Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late
  tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24
hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies
over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft
above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal
anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide
tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the
higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and
Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to
drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW
and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to
localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the
higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early
Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...AM/RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...