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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260000
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The dryline was moving east into the western Panhandles early this
afternoon.  An upper level low was moving northeast toward the 4-
corners.  Upper level winds where increasing across the Panhandles
ahead of this low.

The dryline is expected to mix east to near a Guymon to Amarillo
line by mid to late afternoon.  This is when some thunderstorms may
start to develop.  At this point, it looks like the central
Oklahoma Panhandle and the north-central Texas Panhandle have the
best chances of thunderstorms as the strongest dynamics move across
the dryline.  Further south along the dryline, the cap may hold and
we may not see much.  More thunderstorms may clip the southeast
Texas Panhandle late this evening into the early morning hours of
Friday in association with another jet streak.  Any thunderstorms
this afternoon or tonight may become severe with very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado all possible.

.Fire Weather...
A red flag warning will continue for the western Panhandles until 9
pm this evening.  Strong southwest winds behind the dryline will
couple with relative humidty values down around 10 percent to bring
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions may return tomorrow (Friday) with
critical fire weather conditions possible on Sat, especially
across west central to northwestern portions of the combined
Panhandle into eastern NM. Early Friday a dryline in the eastern
portions of the combined Panhandles should mix into western OK. If
this dryline can retreat back into the eastern combined Panhandle
s Friday night into Sat morning, some severe thunderstorms may be
possible for the far eastern counties in the combined Panhandles
Sat afternoon.

Pretty much all of the combined Panhandles will be on the dry side
of a dryline for Fri, with temperatures in the 80s and RH values
falling into the low to mid teens. A secondary H5 low pressure
system will be digging down the western CONUS states reintroducing
some faster winds aloft (50 to 60 kts) going into Fri evening.

Sat, this system is expected to close off and traverse the Four
Corners Region with winds aloft increasing even more over the
Panhandles to around 70 to 80 kts at H5. Depending on the ability
of low level moisture to advect back into the eastern Panhandles
with the potential retreating of the dryline, some thunderstorms
will be possible for the far eastern counties. Have decreased the
NBM PoPs which were around 30 around the TX/OK stateline to around
15 to 20 percent across the far eastern FA. If thunderstorms do
occur there could be a chance for a severe thunderstorms. However,
most of the deterministic models have the dryline mix back east
taking the overall storm potential out of the combined
Panhandles and into western OK. This could be an instance where
storms pop in the eastern Panhandles and quickly move east before
they are able to become severe.

Due to the increase in the winds aloft Sat, a second and much
strong leeside low is expected to develop over NW NM/SE CO/W OK
Panhandle. The pressure gradient and mixing of winds aloft are
expected to lead to windier conditions Sat with sustained winds
around 30 to 35 mph, and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gust
reaching 50 mph across central to western portions of the
combined Panhandles. With much of the area expected to be on the
dry side of the dryline, min RH values are progged to approach 10
percent as the afternoon highs reach into the 80s. Once again
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible
especially for areas not seeing greenup.

As the H5 low moves off Sat night, and the surface low with it, a
weak cold front is expected to dip into the area bringing
northerly winds for Sun. Highs on Sun are expected to be in the
upper 60s across the northwestern FA and 70s to the southeast
compared to the 80s on Sat. After Sun an H5 ridge is expected to
build in over the Great Plains temperatures will rebound into the
80s for Mon and even approach the low 90s for Tue. Tue and beyond
there are hits at some possible chances for thunderstorms with
perturbations in the ridge coming across the combined Panhandles.
Have stuck with the NBM PoPs for now which introduce some 20 to 40
PoPs, from north to south across the FA on Wed.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For the 00Z TAFs, surface winds will diminish this evening, then
increase around mid to late Friday morning at KDHT and KAMA. Any
thunderstorms that might develop this evening should not impact
any of the terminal sites.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  81  52  80 /  20   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  53  85  52  85 /  40   0   0  20
Boise City OK              47  80  45  74 /   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  55  86  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              52  83  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  51  80  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               53  82  52  83 /  30   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 46  80  45  75 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  49  83  48  81 /  10   0   0  10
Hereford TX                51  81  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                54  85  53  85 /  30   0   0  20
Pampa TX                   53  83  53  83 /  40   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                52  85  52  84 /  40   0   0  20
Wellington TX              53  85  52  85 /  60   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-
     007-011-012-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...02