Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 080222
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 50S...AND SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.

SO...WHAT MONTH IS THIS AGAIN? FEELING MORE LIKE OCTOBER OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS JULY...WITH A RATHER ROBUST LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AS EVIDENCED BY H8 TEMPS IN THE 3-6C RANGE. THAT`S QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WERE WELL INTO THE
80S...AS OPPOSED TO CURRENT READINGS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 50S AND
60S. AS EXPECTED...STRATOCU HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO
LEAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH QUITE THE SHARP INVERSION ABOVE OUR COOL DOME...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THAT SHOULD SET UP A VERY NICE
NIGHT OUT THERE...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION AND
PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS. COUPLED WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS RUNNING DOWN
INTO THE 40S...THE CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND COMBO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
TROUBLE DELIVERING A VERY COOL NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER
(MID?) 30S LIKELY FOR THE USUAL ICE-BOX LOCALES. GET THOSE WINDOWS
OPEN AND THROW AN EXTRA BLANKET ON THE BED - SOUNDS LIKE A CLASSIC
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER NIGHT TO ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIRLY SEASONAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AND
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH PUSHED INTO THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB ON WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT TOWARD INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MSTR PROGS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOW A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NRN
LAKES WITH 850/500MB RH VALUES AROUND 30 TO 40 PCT. THEREFORE EXPECT
THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST TREND ACRS NRN MI TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAYBE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE STRAITS THURSDAY...AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY SWEEPS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WED AND THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND 8C TO
10C...WITH AFTN TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FRIDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 14C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON
HOW TO HANDLE THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS PRETTY
MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE DOWN TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THINGS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT
PLAN TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LOW 80S...PERHAPS COOLING DOWN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE
COLUMN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD WILL
LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...FADING
QUICKLY AS APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE GRADIENT AND WE
LOSE BETTER MIXING OVER LAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
UP UNTIL 00Z FOR MOST AREAS...A LITTLE LONGER ALONG LAKE HURON.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF GREAT BOATING WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS BRINGS WITH IT
LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL/TKT
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...LAWRENCE


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