Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271453
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

I`M BEGINNING TO BELIEVE US FORECASTERS SHOULD GET HAZARD PAY JUST
FOR HAVING TO TELL ALL THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN HOW
COLD IT HAS BEEN! IN ALL-TOO-TYPICAL FASHION ONCE AGAIN LAST
NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY COLD SNOW PACK LED TO
WIDESPREAD SUB- ZERO READINGS...WITH MANY SPOTS JUST INLAND FROM
THE WATER REPORTING VALUES ANYWHERE FROM -15 DOWN TO AS LOW AS -35
DEGREES. LAST NIGHT`S BIG WINNER FROM OFFICIAL OBS? 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ROSCOMMON DOWN TO -31...THOUGH I HAVE NO DOUBT THERE
WERE COLDER READINGS IN SPOTS.

NOW...TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO TODAY...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS
ARE HEADING UP A BIT FASTER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF
THE BEGINNINGS OF RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE MOMENT. AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT IS NOTICEABLE AS
WELL...WITH YESTERDAY`S -22C TO -25C TEMPS AT 925MB REPLACED BY A
MORE REASONABLE -16C TO -20C INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH A
TOUCH BETTER MIXING THAN YESTERDAY...THOSE VALUES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS - BETTER THAN RECENT
SINGLE DIGITS BUT A FAR CRY FROM "NORMAL" VALUES INTO THE LOW 30S
AT THE TAIL END OF FEBRUARY. CLOUD TRENDS ARE TRICKY...AS OUR BACKING
FLOW REGIME TO THE WEST IS TAPPING SOME OPEN WATER OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN GENERALLY SOUTH OF A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF M-72. AS
SUCH...DESPITE AN OVERALL QUITE DRY AIRMASS (PWATS A PALTRY 0.07"
FROM OUR 12Z RAOB)...FULLY CONFIDENT WE WILL REALIZE AN INLAND
EXPANSION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU/STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE FOR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...PERHAPS EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER EAST AS WELL
FOR A TIME INTO NORTHEAST LOWER...THOUGH OF A MUCH MORE SCATTERED
VARIETY. IN ADDITION...WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN ANY THICKER STRATOCU DECK...HELPED ALONG JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND THE FACT THAT THE ENTIRE CLOUD
DECK LIES IN THE DGZ. NOTHING MUCH EXPECTED FROM AN ACCUMULATION
STANDPOINT...WITH MAYBE A DUSTING NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...FORESEE ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. ENJOY!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER
TROUGH HAS GOBBLED UP THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FLORIDA. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVING DOWN INTO THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE 4 CORNERS (SW CONUS)...WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
RESIDED. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES...BUT NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP DUE TO LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAKER FORCING. MOST OF THE COUNTRY WAS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE 1038MB HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS CENTERED SMACK
DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AN INCREDIBLY DRY ATMOSPHERE OF
0.1" OR LESS...ENGULFS ALL OF CANADA AND THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...DOWN TO NEBRASKA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE GREAT LAKES WERE INCLUDED.

WINDS WERE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS OF NRN MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURES HERE RANGED BETWEEN -10F TO -30F. WE DID HAVE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING IN OFF THE LAKES IN CLOUD LAYER NW
WINDS. THE BEST OF THIS CLOUD WAS ACROSS LAKE HURON WHERE ICE HAS
BROKEN OFF AND SHOVED SOUTH...THUS OPENING UP THE WATER. SOME OF
THIS CLOUD HAS SCRAPED THE ROGERS CITY AREA. SOME OTHER MINOR
CLOUD HAS COME INTO MBL/FRANKFORT (MORE OPEN WATER THERE TOO).

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
OVER TO PA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY
WITH PWATS REMAINING 0.1" OR LESS. WE WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER LEVEL
WARMING...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF A WEST...THEN SW DIRECTION
TONIGHT. WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A
SUNNY DAY FOR MOST...WITH SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT AND MAYBE A
BRIEF FLURRY COMING IN OFF THE LAKES. THIS DAY WILL BE THE START
OF A MODERATING PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH AGAIN JUST SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RECENT PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. CAN SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
MOST COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IT WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
HECK THE LAST TIME IT BROKE FREEZING IN GAYLORD WAS OVER A MONTH
AGO...SPECIFICALLY ON FEBRUARY 24TH WHEN IT WAS 33 DEGREES. MOST
SPOTS HAVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN EARLY MARCH. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING APPROACHING THESE READINGS BUT AFTER HOW
EXTREMELY COLD IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS...THE 20S WILL
FEEL MUCH BETTER. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER GOES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER AIR SURGING NORTH...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE TO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS WHEN THINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE (BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH) EDGES NORTHWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO PARTS IF NOT ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN LIKELY FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S WITH THURSDAY ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS AT BEST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WILL WORK
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...REACHING PA. NRN MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN UNDER IT`S INFLUENCE OF TREMENDOUSLY DRY AIR. SCATTERED
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE DOTTING MAINLY TVC/MBL FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A FLURRY OR TWO AT TIMES.

WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL SWITCH FROM W TO SW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD


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