Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
934 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 928 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Next wave of forcing and deeper moisture making slow but steady
progress northwest on north side of fully mature Ohio Valley low
pressure. Band of attendant showers just pushing onshore down near
Saginaw Bay. Radar trends confirm high res guidance progs of
backing this band of showers further northwest with time, with
showers looking like a pretty good bet through the early morning,
particularly across northeast lower Michigan. Loss of any
diurnally driven instability should negate any thunder concerns
and keep rainfall intensity limited. As one would expect given
clouds and rain trends, not expecting much of a nocturnal
temperature response tonight, with lows by morning only falling
into the upper 40s and lower 50s.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Broad surface low remains centered over
the Ohio Valley this afternoon...with the upper low centered to the
west over Missouri. Scattered shower activity continues across much
of our CWA...but has diminished in areal coverage as deeper moisture
becomes better focused to the south around the surface low center.
The few breaks in OVC we have seen across southern sections of our
CWA have quickly filled back in as expected...greatly limiting our
capacity for diurnal destabilization. Attm...all thunder remains
south of Michigan within better instability...lift and moisture

After a lull in the shower action for the balance of the afternoon
and early evening...deep moisture and better forcing will lift back
into Michigan later this evening...overnight and into Thursday as
the surface low lifts into Eastern Lake Erie. Still appears that
eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest POPs during this
time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside.
Virtually no instability will be available anywhere close to our CWA no chance of thunder.

Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. Temps will not
go very far on Thursday across the eastern two-thirds of Northern
Lower temps hold mainly in the mid to upper 50s all
day. Warmest temps will actually be realized across Eastern Upper
and far NW Lower Michigan Thursday afternoon...with highs warming
into the low to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Turning partly cloudy and warmer...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern
Michigan (at least eventually). However, there could still be a few
lingering showers across eastern zones through at least Thursday
night. Will continue with the dry forecast per the blend for Friday
but still would not be surprised if we see a few popup showers
developing. Otherwise, improving conditions with warming
temperatures expected through the period. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 Friday and the upper 60s to middle 70s Saturday. Lows in
the middle 40s to lower 50s for Thursday and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Resolving the precip chances for Sunday/Monday continues to be an
issue. Starting to see a bit of convergence in the handling of the
H5 low over Ontario and the Great Lakes, which should bring some
increasing confidence with the rain chances in the coming days. At
this point, I`m favoring the European solution which is holding off
the bulk of the rain until later Monday evening. Still some guidance
bringing rain Sunday, and blended PoPs continue to reflect that, but
expect that focus will narrow to more of a one day period over the
next few cycles. Temperatures will begin above normal for the
weekend, gradually cooling to slightly below normal by mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Low pressure slowly pivoting south of our area will send another
round of deeper moisture and attendant MVFR/IFR producing cigs
back west across the taf sites tonight through Thursday. Showers
are also expected, especially at KAPN overnight into Thursday
morning. May see some more patchy fog/br, but not expecting it to
be as widespread as last night. Light east winds become a bit
gusty on Thursday.


Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru Thursday
night across most of our nearshore area. Conditions may approach
criteria briefly on Thursday for portions of our Lake Huron
nearshore area...but will hold off on issuance of a SCA for this
area for now. Scattered showers will become more numerous later this
evening...overnight and Thursday as low pressure and deep moisture
lift into the Southern Great Lakes region...with the best chance of
precip along our Lake Huron nearshore areas.




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