Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 031418
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONE WET MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MCV ENHANCED
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH REPORTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS. CURRENT SHOWER
COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (ALREADY
EVIDENT) IN MAX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ON NORTH SIDE OF H7-H8
CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...SHOWERS/STORMS A PRETTY GOOD BET AT ANY POINT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUB 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN WITH
INCREASINGLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS..AND
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MORNING TEMP RESPONSE...WILL GO AHEAD A CUT HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT`S STRENGTH AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SOUPY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS...

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPINNING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND WILL SWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH THE TVC/MBL AREA THROUGH 14Z. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT...BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MEANDER AROUND NRN LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS TO PLN. SHOWERS WILL START TO ENTER THE
VCNTY OF APN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NO STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY
BE MVFR WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME IN THE VCNTY. MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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