Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 260518
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AROUND DAYBREAK
AND THROUGH THIS MORNING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL GRADUALLY
REPLACE THE RECENT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

A BROAD SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED OUT FROM ONTARIO THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MAIN VORT MAX/LOW-UPPER JET FORCING ALL LIFTING
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN. WHILE THE EARLIER SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY HAS
LONG SINCE LEFT THE REGION...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WAVES NOTICEABLE
ON WV IMAGERY STILL UPSTREAM...ALONG/WEST OF A PRETTY DISTINCT COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH IOWA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT AND THE WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ACTION HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THIS HAS SUBSEQUENTLY LED TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
NRN IOWA. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT ALOFT PER
00Z APX SOUNDING...WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT 550-400MB. COOLING AT
700MB AND WARMING IN THE LOW LAYERS THOUGH HAS LEFT SOME LOWER LEVEL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES STILL AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
1000J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR (SEEN
ON THE GRB 00Z SOUNDING)...IS SETTLING IN AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES DO SUBSTANTIATE THIS...WITH A MARKED VEERING
OF THE H8 FLOW TO OUT OF THE NW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROLL THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT...WITH DRIVING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DECAYING DEEP
LAYER -DIVQ IS EXPECTED AS THE VORTICITY SHEARS OUT WITH TIME. CAN
DEFINITELY NOT THROW OUT THE CHANCE FOR SEEING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-6.5C/KM RANGE...BUT MOST FOLKS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO FEEL A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WITH NO RAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT IN EASTERN
UPPER BY SUNRISE...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER DRIER AIR IS SET TO SETTLE IN FOR THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL COOLING WITH REMNANT WARMTH
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CAPPING FOR NO CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...DOES ROLL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL COOLING AND DRIER AIR NEVER MOISTENS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL HAVE THICKENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS NOT UNCOMMON AT ALL WITH INCOMING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. DESPITE UPPER TROUGHING BECOMING MORE DEFINED BY LATE
TONIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING OUTSIDE OF SOME
POSSIBLE PATCHY SPRINKLES. THIS NOT WORTHY OF A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.

HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER AROUND 70F IN EASTERN
UPPER...WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S ACROSS DOWNSLOPING NE LOWER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS WARM/MUGGY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...RAIN THREAT WINDS DOWN TUESDAY MORNING/TURNING LESS HUMID...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS MEAN
TROUGH.  LEAD WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH
A SECOND POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES.  1002MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRETCHING BACK INTO KANSAS/COLORADO.  AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS MICHIGAN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.50-1.75 INCHES AND 70+F SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

AS ONTARIO SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSHED THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  FRONT
THEN SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): LINGERING IMPACTS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NEAR TERM (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT (DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MINNESOTA) EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SO PROVIDED FRONT
MAKES SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POTENTIALLY COOL NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LOW LAYERS ARE STILL
PRETTY DRY WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART PRECLUDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  BUT SOME HINTS OF LIGHT QPF IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
WHICH TEMPERS THE OPTIMISM FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY JUST A BIT.
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF COOL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO LATE AUGUST CLIMO
ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S
EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE TIED TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE LATER THURSDAY/INTO FRIDAY (WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DAYTIME DRY AT THIS POINT)...WITH AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE KEEPING
THE PRECIP THREAT GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY/MONDAY): LATTER PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
IS VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.  CAN ARGUE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EITHER DAY...BOTH...OR NEITHER.  DON`T MIND TRYING TO
SQUEEZE IN A DRY DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING...WHILE SHALLOW COOLER
AIR AND REMNANT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORK IN TANDEM.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFR CIGS IS AVERAGE AT BEST. THERE IS AN EVEN
LESS CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF ROGUE RAIN SHOWERS...AND WILL LEAVE
THAT OUT OF THE FORECASTS. THIS POTENTIAL BKN MVFR CIG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO A VFR DECK 3-4KFT...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR
RESULTS IN A SCATTERED SHALLOW CU DECK INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD IN THE EVENING BEFORE THIS
THICKENS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BELOW 10KTS OUT OF THE SW OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH SOME
PATCHY GUSTY SW FLOW IN STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...TURNING WNW AND REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO SETTLE IN FOR THE NIGHT AND HOLDS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT NEARS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO FORESEEABLE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.