Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 290404
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1204 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL HANGING ON IN SOME SPOTS. LAKE-BREEZE
FORCED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI IS GONE. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...SIMILARLY FORCED CONVECTION PERSISTS AS SOME -SHRA E/SE/S
OF HTL. ACTIVITY IN THE CAD AREA HAS FADED. AND THEN...A BAND OF
SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN DRUMMOND
ISL. THIS ACTIVITY ON SATELLITE RESEMBLES A FEEDER BAND TO THE
DEEP CYCLONE TO OUR EAST.

ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A W-E MOVEMENT WITH
TIME...AS SHORTWAVE TROFFING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES HELPS
BACK THE 700-500MB FLOW FROM N TO W. SOME -SHRA MIGHT GRAZE THE NE
LOWER COAST FROM PRESQUE ISLE LT TO NORTH POINT...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE TEND TO STAY OVER THE LAKE AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH TIME.

QUITE A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...FAR
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. THIS WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME...SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN
TEMPS WERE CAUTIOUSLY ADJUSTED UPWARD IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES THAT SAW RAIN TO HAVE A LITTLE
FOG BY DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF W BRANCH...AS EXPECTED. LESS EXPECTED IS THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR (AND SOUTH OF) CAD.
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHRA
IN EASTERN UPPER ARE CLEARLY PAST PEAK...BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN
WESTERN MACKINAC CO BETWEEN CURTIS AND NAUBINWAY. PRECIP IS
MIGRATING A LITTLE CLOSER TO LAKE MI THAN PLANNED.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WITH BACKSIDE MOISTURE/CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO PULL EAST OF MICHIGAN...WHILE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST GENERALLY DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTM OVER
INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  ALSO HOW LOW WILL TEMPERATURES
GO TONIGHT - AFTER SOME AREAS DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S LAST NIGHT
/WELL BELOW GUIDANCE/.

TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A DIFFUSE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OVER NORTHERN LOWER...LESS
INSTABILITY BUT STILL A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE /MAINLY I-75 EASTWARD/
WITH MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE WITH INLAND MOVING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OFF OF LAKE HURON. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLIDE INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PUSHING SHOWERS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  AT THE SAME TIME...AFOREMENTIONED MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/ LAKE SUPERIOR.  AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  ANOTHER
RELATIVELY CHILLY NIGHT...WITH COOLEST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND COOL
TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST. SO REMINISCENT OF OUR WINTER/SPRING.
THIS PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH
WITH A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
POSITION. IN THE GREAT LAKES...A COUPLE STRONGER SHORT WAVES OF
NOTE WITHIN BROADER SCALE FLOW. ONE SYSTEM RUNNING UP THROUGH NEW
YORK STATE THAT BROUGHT A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN TO PARTS OF LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY YESTERDAY. "WRAP AROUND"
PRECIP WITH THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRYING TO BACK INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. A COUPLE DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS ARE
CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES
PRODUCING SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS ANS SOME THUNDER. ONE OVER SW
ONTARIO...AND SECOND WAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDING SFC LOW OVER IOWA. WEATHER WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE OF THINGS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THESE WAVES PINWHEEL THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE CENTER OVER WISCONSIN AND IT/S
ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW
TRACKING THROUGH INDIANA AND NW OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CERTAINLY
APPEARS THAT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION IS IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS SEEN
SATURDAY. ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
NEBULOUS...STUCK BETWEEN STRONGER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY STILL PIVOTING ACROSS SUPERIOR. PRECIP CHANCES UP
OUR WAY WILL BE MORE TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND
MESOSCALE PROCESSES (AS IT HAS THE LAST FEW DAYS) AS SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WEAK/VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS POINT TO
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LAKE BREEZES AND INLAND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHICH IS WHERE I WILL PAINT THE HIGHER POPS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AXIS AND ATTENDING
ELONGATED SFC LOW LOOKING TO PRESS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD ASCENT WITH THE WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES REGION LEAVING NRN MICHIGAN LARGELY DOMINATED BY HEATING
OF THE DAY/MESOSCALE TYPE PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. AND RIGHT NOW
BASED ON FORECAST LOW LEVEL WINDS/RESULTING CONVERGENCE...BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN
AND INLAND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS ON THROUGH. THAT SAID...DIFFICULT TO GET TO DETAILED IN THE
FORECAST WITHIN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST
"UNSETTLED" DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR START TO MAKE A
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK-ISH NORTHERLY FLOW/HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN STILL COULD POP A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THAT ARE AND TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. BUT OVERALL
WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

OUR WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THIS
NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES. IN
THE GAME OF "PICKING YOUR DRY DAYS"...WE`LL GO WITH DRY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE STILL
SHOWING A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH UNIMPRESSIVE
PWATS AND NOT MUCH OTHER SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF...DON`T THINK WE`LL
REALIZE MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRUGGLE. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY...BUT THEN MODERATING TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS BY THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAINLY VFR.

AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF MI ON THE
MONDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT DISTURBED WX. SHRA/
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BECOME MORE COMMON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR
OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...INLAND FROM ALL OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE A VCSH
MENTION AT TVC/MBL FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST
PART...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS IN ANY
SHRA.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
OVERALL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND DOMINATED BY DIURNAL LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTIER ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS
SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



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