Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAZY/SMOKY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MI. MARINE-INFLUENCED
STRATUS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI HAS BEEN ERODING AT A REASONABLE
CLIP...HANGING ON LONGEST IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY AND ALONG THE
LAKE MI/HURON COASTLINES (THANKS TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE WIND). IN
NORTHERN LOWER...SHALLOW FOG HAS LARGELY BURNED OFF...THOUGH EVEN
SO VSBYS ARE ONLY IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. SOME ACCAS IS CROSSING NW
LOWER MI. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT IS DECAYING QUICKLY...BUT A BROKEN
BAND OF SHRA IS NEARING FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...
MORE WELL-DEVELOPED ACCAS HAS GENERATED SCT SHRA...PRESENTLY
CENTERED ON MENOMINEE CO MI.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LATE-AFTERNOON 20 POP IN WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS AT THE NE END OF A PLUME OF STEEP
700-500MB LAPSE RATES THAT BEGINS IN CENTRAL WI. 6.5-7.0C/KM LAPSE
RATES WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLD INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK. WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT. A SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY PLUME MAY POKE INTO EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...BUT INSTABILITY DIES OUT RAPIDLY EAST OF OF ESC/MUNISING
THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SVR...WILL
LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE TO SEE THUNDER. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE JUST AFTER 00Z/8PM.

GIVEN MORNING CLOUD TRENDS...HAVE VERY SLIGHTLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...AND RAISED THEM SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BOTH
EXTEND FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. STUBBORN SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DID GRADUALLY
MIX OUT/TRANSFORM INTO SOME CU AND HAZE DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP INTO FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE IS REINFORCED THRU LOW LEVEL
NOCTURNAL COOLING.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND BELOW
THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU EARLY MORNING.
ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX AND LIFT INTO CU AND LIGHT HAZE AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON OR SO. SOME ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AS IS SYNOPTIC LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 JOULES ACROSS
ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENHANCED LIFT IN THIS AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COOL FRONT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...WIND FIELDS ARE VERY LIGHT...AND
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS. CONTINUED WAA
COMBINED WITH SOME SUN WILL AGAIN BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

LOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM...ONCE AGAIN
LENDING TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS LOW TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

THE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT/TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS LITTLE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NORTHERN LOWER. WIND
FIELDS ARE RATHER LIGHT SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE MAY THEN SPARK
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGH MOST SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BOTH DAYS WITH THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY
(AT LEAST). DESPITE ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS
SUNDAY...COULD SEE ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER
COLD FRONT BEATS DOWN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

IFR FOG RETURNS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE US CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM/MUGGY/HAZY AIR
INTO NORTHERN MI ON SW WINDS. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP...WITH
PLN THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO GO LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING.

MAINLY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SE OF MICHIGAN. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN
AND THE TIP OF THE MITT AREA AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES THRU THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AREAS FOG WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



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