Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS63 KAPX 150607
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Rain/snow chances early Saturday across the eastern U.P. and
   northwest lower.

-- Colder temperatures and lake effect snow chances return late
   Saturday, lasting into Monday. Most likely areas for
   accumulating snow will the snow belts of eastern upper and
   northwest lower Michigan.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Elongated surface high pressure is
currently situated from the central/northern Plains eastward through
the western Great Lakes to near James Bay. This will sag south
through the day as focus transitions to incoming mid-upper level
troughing and attendant surface cyclone set to drop into the
region from the northwest later tonight into Saturday.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is expected
through the majority of the near-term forecast period with high
temperatures this afternoon back into the 40s and low 50s.

Increasing clouds will be the rule mid-evening onwards as low
pressure approaches from the northwest. Clouds thicken/lower for the
second half of the night with rain/snow chances arriving across
eastern upper and northwest lower between 08-12z. Highest
likelihood for precip to fall as all snow is across the inland
higher terrain of both the eastern U.P. and northern lower where
temperatures fall closer to freezing for at least a brief
period. Any late night accumulation likely to be minimal at
best -- perhaps a localized couple of tenths of an inch,
primarily on cooler/grassy/elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Surface high pressure will be forced
south and east of the region for the weekend as favorable dynamics
allow for a digging shortwave and associated deepening surface low
to move north of Lake Superior into Saturday. Limited (but
appreciable) moisture associated with the system brings back
precipitation chances to the CWA Saturday. Surface cold frontal
boundary will pass through northern Michigan Saturday evening /
overnight, bringing a deeper and colder airmass to the region to
close out the weekend. With lingering synoptic moisture and
sufficient delta-Ts over the open waters, lake effect snow is set to
develop through the overnight hours into Sunday, with particular
focus on the the eastern U.P.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Saturday precip: Entirely possible for colder interior areas of NW
lower and the eastern Yoop to be mixing with snowflakes Saturday
morning, but as warm advection ahead of the cold front builds,
expectation is that this changes to mainly rain. Given preceding
warmth and marginal temperatures, not overly concerned with any
slick travel developing. In addition, given the displacement from
the best moisture and forcing in Ontario, best precip chances likely
favor NW lower and especially the eastern U.P., where the highest
PoPs have been placed. This round of precipitation will be rather
quick given the meager moisture associated with the system... as
mentioned by previous forecaster, looks like a bit of a dry lull
into the afternoon hours for much of the CWA as the surface cold
front passes through, with highs recovering well into the 40s across
the board, perhaps near or slightly above 50 for TVC and spots
closer to Saginaw Bay.

Saturday night - Sunday Lake Effect: Cold air advection set to
remind everyone what time of year it actually is, which, at last
check of the calendar on the wall, is mid March. Even though the
cold is returning, the lakes are anomalously open for this time of
year, and that means late season lake effect opportunities are to be
had. As such, the lake effect machine will generate, albeit, not in
an overly active manner. The lack of lingering synoptic moisture and
diurnal disruptions to any potential banded structure (turning
things more cellular) will put a cap on how extensive lake effect
snows get as we head into Sunday, especially across NW lower. Better
moisture likely supports more persistent lake effect snows in the
eastern U.P. Looking at the latest probabilistic guidance, not much
changes in the thoughts from previous forecast cycle... near medium
chances for 1"+ of accums in the snowbelts, though there are non-
zero chances for 3"+ across Antrim and Kalkaska counties along with
western Chippewa county in the eastern U.P. Still plenty of time for
this forecast to be refined, but unless available low level moisture
can increase, this looks like a light event at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
More extensive longwave troughing set to be anchored over
northeastern North America by the time we get to the long term, and
this probably leads to more lake effect snow chances into Monday as
colder air remains overhead... moisture may be depleted by Tuesday,
but as longwave troughing slowly shifts east, this should open the
door for a shortwave to ride the edge of this troughing from Canada
into the upper Great Lakes, which should increase snow chances
through the day. This too looks somewhat moisture starved, but may
be enough to induce another round of lake effect snow in the wake of
this system. Looking beyond midweek, milder zonal flow commences and
temperatures moderate from the 20s and 30s at the beginning of the
week to the upper 30s and lower 40s by the time we get late into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites thru Friday
evening as strong high pressure and dry low level air continue
to build into Michigan. Surface winds will remain N/NW AOB 10
kts overnight into Friday and then become southerly Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/waves remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria today through
this evening. Southwest winds increase late tonight through Saturday
morning with periods of advisory level winds/waves likely at times
through the upcoming weekend as low pressure shifts by to our north.
Winds veer more west-northwesterly behind a cold front for Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.