Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 132005
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
405 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Rain chances return late tonight into Thursday night across
   parts of northern lower Michigan. Steadiest rain expected
   along and south of M-55.

-- Precip chances return on Saturday with accumulating lake
   effect snow possible Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Zonal flow/weak surface high pressure will continue across the
region into early tonight. Attention will then turn to low pressure
in the central Plains which will head northeast into the lower Great
Lakes over the next couple of days. Light winds and mostly clear
skies through early tonight will allow "the heat" from today to
escape the area allowing temperatures to drop off into the upper 20s
and 30s. Increasing high and eventually mid level cloudiness late
tonight will limit radiational cooling overnight. The slow
moistening process (lots of dry low level air to overcome) from the
approaching area of low pressure will bring a slight chance for rain
showers across far southern counties (Manistee to Gladwin) toward
morning. Light winds will become northeast at around 5 mph or so
late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis:

Broad ridging will encompass the southeast CONUS on Thursday as
shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow aloft punches into the
Great Lakes. Forcing provided by this feature aloft will help deepen
an elongated surface cyclone that looks to trek along an existing
frontal boundary stretching near Michigan`s southern border. As this
system works east, high pressure is expected to build across the
region to end the work week. More impressive troughing and an
associated surface cyclone looks to dig into the Great Lakes later
Saturday.

Forecast Details:

Rain Thursday-Thursday night -- As the aforementioned system works
into the region, rain chances will continue across portions of
northern lower Michigan on Thursday. Steadiest rain is expected
along and south of M-55 in closer proximity to favorable forcing.
Confidence begins to decrease in rain chances north of M-55 --
especially north of M-32. Rain chances will continue into Thursday
night, mainly near Saginaw Bay. While not expected, there are non-
zero chances for any remaining rain showers to transition to wet
snow Thursday night.

Precip Saturday -- After Thursday night, precip-free weather is
expected through the end of the week before chances return on
Saturday. A cold front looks to swing across the region on Saturday,
bringing rain chances along/ahead of the boundary. Temperatures look
to cool behind the front -- potentially leading to a transition from
rain to snow across the eastern U.P. as early as Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Confidence continues to increase in a pattern change late this
weekend into early next week. Strong longwave troughing looks to dig
from Canada over the Great Lakes by Sunday, pivoting over much of
the northeast CONUS through the remainder of the period. Forcing
provided by this feature is expected to support a cyclone that
should churn over portions of southeast Canada into the first half
of next week. As the previous forecaster indicated, recent
deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in
accumulating lake effect snow across parts of northern Michigan
during the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
Specific forecast snow amounts and areas of highest accumulation are
still uncertain, and details should become more clear as the weekend
draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
VFR cigs/vsbys and light winds through tonight. Low pressure
tracking by to the south will increase clouds late tonight with
a chance for rain showers at MBL and TVC Thursday morning.
Northeast winds will become a little gusty late Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through tonight. Advisory level wind gusts
cannot be ruled out for Lake Huron nearshore waters near Saginaw
Bay Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...AJS


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