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000
FXUS63 KAPX 151126
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
726 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

A COLD FRONT HAS QUIETLY WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME NICE WEATHER RIGHT ON THE
WEEKEND...ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THUS FAR. LOT OF CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE TO
START THE DAY SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT MCD AND PERHAPS OTHER
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO COME UP. COLD FRONT ABOUT TO
ADVANCE OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MID LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY PLUME ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. ONE LAST GASP OF MID LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE/
FORCING DID FIRE OFF ONE MORE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
JUST GRAZED NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 3 AM. BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS NOW OFF SHORE HEADING ACROSS LAKE HURON.

MEANWHILE...PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ABOUT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT STRONG DRYING IS ALREADY
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CWA BACK INTO WISCONSIN WITH MOST OF THE
CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...ANTICIPATE A DRY
FROPA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG DRYING/GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULTING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. PER LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR MOST...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SO...PLAN NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

TONIGHT...QUIET. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER STRETCH OF QUITE NICE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST ISSUES SUNDAY
ONWARD FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
IS A QUIET ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL THE
WHILE...PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING
FROM HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY TO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATER
SUNDAY...PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR WARM BUT DRY SPRINGTIME
CONDITIONS. THE WHOLE PATTERN LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND BUT ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN CONTROL. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SCREAMS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUDSON BAY RIDGING IN
FULL CONTROL...AND A SUBSEQUENT ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. OF ALL 3 DRY
DAYS...THURSDAY STILL LOOKING TO FEATURE THE MOST ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AS THE REMAINING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS BOOST MIXING
AND KEEP WINDS UP...THOUGH CONDITIONS DON`T LOOKS TO BE QUITE AS BAD
AS TODAY (WEDNESDAY). WILL STILL BE DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASICALLY A NIL GRADIENT OVERHEAD. TEMPS
EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOW 70S...
COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
NIGHTS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH A QUICK DIURNAL
DIP WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRAPES ITSELF OVERHEAD (A FEW SPOTS WITH
PATCHY FROST?).

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED BY PRECIP CHANCES EVEN
INTO SUNDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY AS LOWER LEVEL
RIDGING LIKELY HANGS TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. HOWEVER...BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH A WARM FRONT PROBABLY LIFTING NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEARBY
(PLACEMENT STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE AT
LEAST A ROUND OR TWO OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...DO NOT TRUST GOING
MOISTURE PROGS WHATSOEVER WITH A RECENT HUGE POSITIVE DEW POINT BIAS
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE NAM/GFS RUNS...WHICH IS IN TURN FEEDING BACK
INTO NEAR DAILY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL WORLD EACH AFTERNOON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A MORE FOCUSED WINDOW
OF PRECIP SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH...BUT HONESTLY NOT VERY THRILLED AT
THIS JUNCTURE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION OF PRECIP.
INSTEAD...WILL STEER THE FORECAST TOWARD SMALL CHANCE POPS WHILE
ALSO MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS EACH DAY...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD END UP DRY IF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

DRY COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL
PASS THROUGH THE APN TERMINAL SITE BY 13Z. SOME LIGHT FOG OCCURRING
AT APN CURRENTLY...BUT WILL GO AWAY AFTER FROPA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY AT
PLN AND APN...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY/EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNDER ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA