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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231957
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TO PUT
THE KIBOSH ON THE SOGGY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAYS
AND CHILLY NIGHTS. SO CHILLY IN FACT...THAT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
YORK STATE. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
DEPARTING RAINFALL EXITING INTO LAKE HURON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS MARKED CLEARING ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
LOW TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF COMPETING FACTORS TO CONTEND WITH AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES GO. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY FULLY
DECOUPLE WITH 950 MB WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FROM A PURE COLD ADVECTION STANDPOINT
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -2 AND -3
C...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SHELTERED SPOTS HIT THE UPPER (OR EVEN
MIDDLE 20S). SO AT A MINIMUM...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST (THOUGH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS VOID OF
MUCH MOISTURE IN ITSELF MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH ACTUAL FROST) IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS COULD SUPPORT A
FREEZE (BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD). SO WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY...AS WELL AS
AN EXPANSION EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE
HURON.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
A VERY SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDING/CROSS
SECTIONS ARE VERY DRY...SUPPORTING LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER...SO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...WARMING TREND LAST SEVEN DAYS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN (ABOUT 2-4C ABOVE AVERAGE) THOUGH NOT A GREAT
START OUT THERE TODAY.  1-3C ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY THUS
FAR.  PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY:  SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SOME LOCALES PICKING UP 2-3+ INCHES OF PRECIP.  OVERALL SOIL
MOISTURE (TOP 1M) STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TOP 25CM MOSTLY BELOW 50
PERCENT CAPACITY.  AREA RIVERS ON THE RISE AFTER RAINFALL...RIFLE
RIVER NEAR STERLING ALREADY IN FLOOD WITH A FORECAST RISE OF ANOTHER
1.5 FEET OR SO.  GREAT LAKES: WATER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 4-5C
NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON...AROUND 6-7C FROM BEAVER ISLAND NORTH
AND EAST TO THE STRAITS.  LAKE SUPERIOR/WHITEFISH BAY AROUND 3C.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: SMALL-SCALE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHS EAST AND WEST AND A NARROW RIDGE
IN BETWEEN.  OVERALL RECENT PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY PROGRESSIVE (45
DAY HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS REFLECTS THIS RATHER NICELY)...THOUGH THE
CURRENT BLOCKING WILL KEEP THINGS HEMMED IN A BIT WITH EAST COAST
CYCLOGENESIS THIS WEEKEND HELPING BOG THINGS DOWN.  BUT THE OVERALL
TREND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OUT WEST (AND THUS AN OVERALL WARMING
TREND).

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND GETS
STUCK BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED EAST COAST CYCLONE AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING 60N INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON
THAT IS FORECAST TO FLY BY EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH SUNDAY.  MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS LOOK TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK WILL DROP
ACROSS LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...DISTURBANCE DOES
HAVE AN AREA OF CIRRUS WITH IT THAT WILL FLOAT ACROSS FOR A TIME.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL EXPECT
A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME THREAT FOR
FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY...DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S THOUGH MAY STILL
FALL A BIT SHORT OF AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

SIMILAR STORY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGE STUCK IN PLACE.  PLAN TO MENTION
FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE
LOWER-MID 30S.  PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO HOLD ON INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY AS
WELL.  THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK...HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MONDAY/TUESDAY...BUT
WILL START GETTING INTO BETTER WARM ADVECTION BY MIDWEEK.  MAY ALSO
START TO GET NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...AND BY WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY
AS WARM FRONT NUDGES CLOSER.  HIGHS MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH MORE 70S DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL ONLY LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AT MOST WITH
SKIES RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GAIN FULL CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LEADING TO
HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...AJS