Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 120733
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Even warmer today.

- Rain shower chances Thursday into Friday.

- Slowly cooling temperatures late this week into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

- Even warmer today.

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid level heights back on the rebound across the Northwoods early
this morning...driven by a progressive mid/upper level flow regime
across central NOAM. Disjointed upper level moisture advection well
ahead of Upper Mississippi Valley low amplitude shortwave trough
bringing patches of high level clouds to the region. Otherwise, a
dry and seasonably mild night, with current reading in the 20s and
30s.

Prime set-up continues today to pump in unseasonably mild air into
the northern Great Lakes, with southwest flow between approaching
area of weak low pressure and subtropical southeast Conus centered
surface high pressure. Weak surface trough/cold front to work across
the area tonight, ushering in just slightly cooler conditions for
mid-week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Primary focus remains on cloud and temperature trends (or
more precisely...just how warm to go today).

Details:

As mentioned above...about all systems a go to produce unseasonably
warm conditions across the Northwoods today. Only possible
hindrance will be some passing mid and upper level clouds. Still,
simple breadth of this exceptionally mild airmass and propensity for
temperatures to well overperform expectations easily supports
running with the warmest end of the guidance spectrum. Thinking
highs in the lower to middle 60s are easily attainable across much
of northern lower Michigan, with even a few upper 60s in reach in
those favored southwest flow downslope areas. Records for the date
are pretty warm, but definitely could see a few in jeopardy of
falling...with best bet being the SOO and Houghton Lake (perhaps
Gaylord as well).

Dry frontal passage for tonight, with just some more passing mid and
upper level clouds. Still exceptionally mild tonight, with lows
ranging through the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Broad troughing over the US West as
well as the over the Hudson Bay Wednesday. Zonal flow aloft over the
great lakes region will continue to push the weak surface low
eastward and out of Ontario. Northerly winds near the surface will
persist, reaching down to central MI. Temperatures will still warm
to above normal, however clouds and north winds will limit the
warming to around 5 to 10 degrees below Tuesday`s highs.
Temperatures over the southern counties of the CWA will be the
warmest as southerlies will try to push north from down state.
Thursday, a CO lee side surface low deepens and lifts from KS/OK to
IA/MO with a warm front extending to south MI. Warm sector rain will
spread over MI Thursday mid day, reaching the tip of the mitt. A
drier low level airmass from Ontario will seep south over the UP,
limiting precip chances and amounts there Thursday. East winds will
begin light, becoming breezy Thursday night and into Friday morning.
Temperatures will fall overnight to the mid to low 30`s, allowing
change over of rain to snow.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Clouds and north winds will keep some
uncertainty in Wednesday`s temperatures. There will likely be no
records broken, however if the sun can shine a little longer than
expected temperatures will warm accordingly. Decent uncertainty
exists for Thursday`s weather. The most likely scenario (explained
above) is reflected in around 60% of GFS/ECM/EPS ensemble members.
The other 40% do not introduce snow chances over northern lower and
eastern upper until Friday. Uncertainty in available moisture amounts
and the track of the surface low lead to these different potential
outcomes. At this time, its likely light to moderate rain will begin
over northern lower, dropping around 0.1" to 0.25" through out the
day with highest amounts south and lowest amounts north. If surface
dew points can remain in the low 30`s, temperatures will drop
through the night to meet them. Colder air aloft also moves
overhead, changing precip to snow overnight. Areas that remain wet
as temperature reach or dip below freezing could see icy spots on
roadways as snow starts to fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Uncertainty exists in the exact
placement of the surface low Friday morning, however winds over
northern MI will back to N/NW throughout the day as higher surface
pressure builds in. Some guidance has an upper level short wave
quickly moving over the area Friday, lingering clouds and slight
chances for light precip through the day. Starting Friday, an upper
level ridge will amplify over British Columbia, in turn
strengthening the N/NE polar jet racing southward down the Canadian
front range. This will allow an area of lower heights over the south
Hudson Bay to close off and spin, deepening a surface low under it
Saturday. The cold front with this system will move through the CWA
later Saturday/Sunday, brining chances for snow. These chances will
linger through the end of the period. Colder temperatures will be
seen as well.

Primary Forecast Concerns: There are a few areas of uncertainty with
the forecast for next weekend into early next week. This is to
almost be expected with how progressive the pattern is, and knowing
that we are in spring (which models do not handle these transition
seasons well). At this time, the exact timing, track, and intensity
of next weekend/week`s weather system is being debated by guidance.
Any modification to those three characteristics, and the resulting
scenerio`s can differ greatly. The ensemble clusters with the
highest amount of members point to a large and broad area of upper
level low pressure anchoring over Ontario and Quebec. This would
keep the patter active, and temperatures cooler than what we have
been experiencing. We will be watching how this system evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
A weak moisture-starved area of low pressure will move thru the
Western Great Lakes region on Tuesday...resulting only in
increasing mid and high clouds. VFR conditions are expected at
all TAF sites for the next 24 ours. Surface winds will remain
southerly AOB 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds look to become a touch gusty again today, but trends
support sub-advisory conditions continuing. Sub-advisory conditions
expected to continue through at least Wednesday night. Stronger
northeast to north winds arrive later Thursday into Friday, perhaps
producing advisory conditions on some of our nearshore waters.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB


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