Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH 999 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
HOW COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WINDS START TO PICK UP ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SO DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY WELL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MODEL GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES. A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE THE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP FIRST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER (HOPEFULLY THAT WILL HOLD IT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND DRIVEN SNOW EVENT PRODUCING
TRAVEL IMPACTS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALL EYES TUNED TO DUAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS DRIVING EAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SECONDARY...LESS
DEFINED WAVE TO ITS NORTHWEST...WITH THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF
THESE TWO DRUMMING UP A LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS
OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PATTERN REMAINS CHANGEABLE
AND RELATIVELY ACTIVE THEREAFTER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SNOW PRODUCING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: IMPACTS (SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND WIND) WITH SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. INITIAL HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS?

DETAILS: ATMOSPHERE SET TO GO THROUGH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY. RAPID APPROACH OF LEAD UPSTREAM WAVE DOES
THE TRICK...WITH ATTENDANT SLUG OF RATHER IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF QG
SUPPORT COINCIDING NICELY WITH 50+ KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET. THE
LATTER OF THESE FEATURES DRIVES QUITE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH
PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AOA 0.5 INCH LEVELS...WITH THE FORMER WORKING
ON THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO DRIVE A QUICK HITTING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...PRE-COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CHILLY
(INCREASINGLY HARD TO DO AS WE APPROACH APRIL)...AND INITIAL DRY LOW
LEVELS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS RAPID COOLING OF ANY MORNING BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION. EXPECT ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS THE LOW/MID LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. THIS
TRANSITION MAY TAKE A TOUCH LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT EVEN
HERE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW SCENARIO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
REAL POSSIBILITY PRECIP MIXES WITH...OR EVEN CHANGES TO RAIN AFTER
PRIMARY FORCING IS LOST. HOWEVER..."DAMAGE" WILL LARGELY BE DONE BY
THEN. WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATHER LIMITED (3-5 HOURS)...AND
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN EXPECTED FLAKE
FRAGMENTATION AND AFTERNOON TIMING. STILL...FORCING/MOISTURE WILL DO
THEIR BEST TO COMPENSATE...AND FULLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH MID-EVENING...HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
UPPER. WINDS THE OTHER STORY...WITH DEEPENING MIXING TAPPING INTO AT
LEAST SOME OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...SUPPORTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR...WITH A
COMBINATION OF PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND GUSTY
WINDS RESULTING IN SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.
STILL TO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINE...BUT WITH ONE POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED
(FIST GUESS WOULD BE EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT
HARD IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS AND GRAPHICS.

APPROACH OF SECONDARY WAVE AND MAINTENANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SNOWS GOING MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT...MIXED WITH RAIN DURING
THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...LAKE CONTRIBUTION WITH H8
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND THE NEGATIVE LOWER/MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IDEAL FOR SOME FORCED UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL IN ALL...COULD SEE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO FOR FAVORED AREAS.

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS MONDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING MORNING FLURRIES
GIVEN WAY TO A DRY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
STILL WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST HINTS OF LOW AMP WAVE
ENTICING A DECENT FGEN RESPONSE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKES. OVERALL
TRENDS HAS BEEN WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH HAS SOME MERIT GIVEN
HOW QUICKLY IT FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. DEFINITELY
WORTH MONITORING...WITH AIRMASS REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THE EARLIER
MORE ROBUST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE ADVECTING IN SOME WARMER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDING
LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL TRANSIT THE AREA BRINGING ABOUT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. THINGS GET MUCH LESS CERTAIN
GOING INTO EASTER WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING AS SHORTWAVES ZIP
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...WITH POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM A CLEAR
WEEKEND TO CHANCES OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT IS REALLY A CRAP SHOOT
AS TO WHICH SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
BE HELPING TO PROPAGATE THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE GETTING TO
THE WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GOING MUCH DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AND QUITE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THOUGH IT HAS TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS RUN.
THIS TREND WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW...UNLESS THE TRACK
GETS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING NOTHING AS OTHER GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING. WILL KEEP WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF CHANCE
POPS...AS THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE QUITE A FEW TIMES THIS FAR
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS MANITOBA WILL APPROACH THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TVC AND MBL AND SNOW
AT PLN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND VERY
GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SULLIVAN



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