Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 192031
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...LAWRENCE





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