000
FXUS63 KAPX 180154
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
954 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...WILL EXIT EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE
SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES...WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL INITIATE A VERY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...COMPLETE WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A COLD FRONT HAS WORKED SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LOWER MI
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO POKE SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH OF CONVECTIVE SHRA
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF M-72...NOT A LOT BUT SOME. BAND OF FGEN-RELATED
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHERN AND NE LOWER MI IS SLOWLY FALLING
APART. BUT TECHNICIANS DOING EMERGENCY REPAIRS ON THE APN ASOS
REPORTED THAT IT WAS STILL SPITTING OVER THERE WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR.

THE HIGH IS GOING TO EVENTUALLY DRAG MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MI. THAT PROCESS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN EASTERN UPPER. THERE IS
A GROWING AREA OF STRATOCU NEAR BEAVER ISL. THAT WILL GET SHOVED
SOUTHWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT TO
NW LOWER MI. CLOUD TRENDS IN PARTICULAR WILL BE TRICKY...BUT IN
GENERAL OUTSIDE OF NW LOWER A DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD BE SEEN.
MIN TEMPS COULD STAND TO BE LOWERED A SMIDGE NORTH OF M-32...AND
RAISED TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

WESTWARD-MOVING LAKE BREEZE MANAGING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS IN
THE HTL/GRAYLING AREAS. NOTHING ESPECIALLY VIGOROUS THOUGH...AND
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY SLIDING THRU THE 70S. MAY
GIVE THINGS ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE YANKING THUNDER ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE FORECAST...AND OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO WISCONSIN/
MINNESOTA.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A SMALL UPPER LOW EAST
OF JAMES BAY.  ONE CENTER IS CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELPED DEVELOP SEVERE STORM DROPPING THROUGH THE
THUMB.  A SECOND WAVE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH IT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  DESPITE
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE MUCH
OVER NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL
STABILITY STILL IN PLACE BASED ON WAVE CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FARTHER NORTH...BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN UPPER AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHILE SC DECK HAS BEEN STUCK OVER EASTERN UPPER THROUGH
THE DAY.

COMBINATION OF LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EITHER DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OR ADVECTING EAST OUT OF WISCONSIN WILL KEEP
THE PRECIP THREAT GOING FOR THIS EVENING.  WILL KEEP THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN BEST THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING DRYING/SUBSIDENCE.
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A TIME IF THEY DON`T COMPLETELY MIX
OUT BEFORE SUNSET AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULL THEM BACK INLAND FOR
A TIME.

EVENTUALLY EXPECT CLEARING TO WIN OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MEANING A GRADUAL RETURN
TO SOME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND EVENTUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS RATHER RELAXED...AND IN THIS CASE EVEN A BIT
MORE BLOCKY THAN USUAL...COURTESY OF WHAT HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING SEA. THAT PATTERN
HAS FORCED CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
SO FAR THIS SUMMER (SOME REALLY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY)...
WHILE VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER TROUGHING HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...HELPING KEEP TEMPS THUS FAR BELOW
NORMAL FOR JUNE. THAT SETUP IS ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING AS MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING IS IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GET A BUMP EASTWARD AS WE APPROACH LATE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH SOME BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW AMPLIFIED IT WILL BE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN ALSO HELP MODULATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AS BROAD LOWER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES FROM A POSITION BASICALLY OVERHEAD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AFTER A CHILLY START TO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SPOTS
DOWN WELL INTO THE 30S...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS DRIER
AIR HANGS TOUGH OVER THE REGION (PWATS DOWN AROUND A HALF INCH/
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S). SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW SHOWERS RIDE THROUGH THE U.P. BY THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
GETS SHUNTED SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIPPING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO. INSTABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE NOT
LOOKING TOO GREAT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND RATHER FLAT LAPSE
RATES...SO PREFER TO REFRAIN FROM A THUNDER MENTION AND SEE WHERE
FUTURE TRENDS TAKE US.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL
DEPARTMENT WHILE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES...AS THE ESTABLISHED TREND APPEARS TO BE A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR INCREASING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE THIS FAR NORTH...WITH THE GFS NOTABLY
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH EASTERN CANADA TROUGHING...THUS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MERIDIONAL LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED...
BUT IS STILL HINTING AT A RETURN TOWARD MUCH MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPS THIS FAR NORTH. ULTIMATELY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS FEATURES TO CROSS THE
AREA.

THE PATTERN APPEARS PRIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES WHILE A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WORKS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH TIME. OF COURSE...
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY WITH MULTI-GUIDANCE HINTS OF A MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE RIDGE TOP. WHILE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS ALMOST A
LOCK...JUST HOW WARM WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S...
AND BASED ON CONSISTENT SIGNALS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL NUDGE
READINGS UP A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PRESS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BRING LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION...ENDING ANY PRECIP THREAT
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE
FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM ONTARIO.  SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UPPER SHORELINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB