Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 022002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



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