Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KAPX 170445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Issued at 1035 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Large area of strong high pressure and a widespread arctic airmass
remain centered over the heart of the US late this evening...
providing an unseasonably frigid night across much of the US.
Closer to home...low level flow has shifted to the NW...refocusing
light lake effect snow shower activity westward to the Lake
Michigan shoreline areas. This will continue thru the remainder of
the night...with new snow amounts well under an inch for the more
typical snowbelt areas. Have dropped overnight lows several
degrees based on latest obs trends...with most locations
plummeting into the single digits above and below zero. Stay warm


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Nuisance lake snow showers...turning warming starting

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Stretched out short wave trough
extends from Quebec through lower Michigan and into the central
plains...the downstream leg of omega blocking across the western
CONUS. Small scale vorticity max/spin is evident on satellite
over southeast lower Michigan with an associated surface low
over southern Lake Huron and some semblance of a deformation axis
wrapping around through the Saginaw Bay/OSC area into central/southern
lower Michigan. Still some light snow occurring through that

Across northern Michigan...northerly flow lake and inland heating
induced snow showers/flurries continue...but have been relatively
minor through the day. There are a couple of heftier long axis
single lake bands running down through Lake Michigan and some
beefier lake snow showers migrating eastward across Lake Superior
that we will have to contend with later on. Otherwise...many areas
have seen a fair amount of sunshine today with dry air wedging in
from the north...especially in eastern upper Michigan.

Tonight...diurnal heating component to the snow showers/flurries
will fade quickly this evening leaving some northerly flow lake
snow showers near the coast. Low level mean flow will back
northwesterly this evening and westerly high
pressure builds southward into the central/southern plains. This
will push some of the heftier lake snow showers on Lakes Michigan
and Superior back into the coastline areas from Leelanau to
Manistee counties as well as parts of eastern upper Michigan
tonight. This should result in a period of heavier snow
showers/lower VSBYS for those areas...although relatively brief as
winds continue to back through the night.

Wednesday will start with lake clouds and probably some light
snow showers across NW lower Michigan that will migrate/fan out
inland through the morning. But much warmer air presses into the
western Great Lakes through the day...ending the lake effect snow
showers and thinning out cloud cover through the afternoon.
Gustier west winds return and will lead to some blowing snow
across the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Milder temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Very Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None except for somewhat low wind chills
Wednesday night.

Wednesday night...A continued rather stout pressure gradient between
low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will lead
to more gusty winds. Temperatures will be nearly steady to slowly
rising out of the middle teens to lower 20s but wind chill values in
the single digits can be expected.

Thursday...A short wave dropping down through the flow will bring a
quick shot of cooler air as well as a chance for a few snow showers.
Highs in the milder upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thursday night into Friday...The warm advection pattern resumes.
Cloud cover is a tough call with model soundings first showing
shallow moisture trapped below an inversion Thursday night then
mid/high level moisture Friday from a short wave moving by to the
north. So overall partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower and
middle 20s. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main focus in the extended will be this system that will lift
over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  It`s still very early to be
talking storm track...and will likely morph between now and then.
However...most guidance is showing us remaining in the warm sector
as the low lifts from the four corners to Wisconsin by Monday
morning.  Right now, it looks like a surge of mild air will have
precip begin as rain on Sunday...and then a wintry mix as colder air
wraps into the region Sunday night into Monday...and eventually all
snow late Monday into Tuesday.  More seasonal, colder air will then
settle back in.  The challenges to the forecast will be track,
timing and to what extent and impact any mixed precip will
present...and hopefully future runs will bring more confidence in
all these factors.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Light lake effect snow showers will continue to impact portions of
the NW Lower Michigan shoreline areas overnight into Wednesday.
Overall conditions will be VFR thru the 24 hr TAF forecast
period...but will periodically drop to MVFR/possibly IFR within
any lake snow showers. Winds will shift to the SW on Wednesday as
low level WAA begins...bringing an end to over-lake instability.
SW winds will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts




AVIATION...MR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.