Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
901 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE/DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SPANS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGANS WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...SAVE FOR A
FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING TO 820 MB FINALLY ABLE TO KNOCK SFC
DEWPOINTS DOWN A FEW MORE NOTCHES WITH SOME SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE
20S (24F AT PLN LAST HOUR). OTHERWISE SFC DEWPOINTS LARGELY SPAN
THE 30S ACROSS THE CWA. WE WILL HAVE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKER P-GRADIENT/CALM WINDS. BUT WE ARE ALSO STARTING NEARLY 10
DEGREES WARMER. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS
SHOULD STILL WIND UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 33-38 DEGREE RANGE BY
MORNING AND THE GOING FROST ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. THAT SAID...I
MAY END UP ADDING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE FROST ADVISORY
(HOPEFULLY NOT TO LATE) SINCE INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD ALSO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT LEAST...AND IT LINES UP BETTER WITH OUR NWS
NEIGHBOR TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...BEAUTIFUL BUT CHILLY TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...VERY QUIET OUT THERE...AND BEAUTIFUL. A HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION WITH DEEPER DRIER
AIR ENGULFING NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WERE LIGHT WITH ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES IN FULL SUN. SOME GUSTINESS IN AND AROUND FRANKFORT AND
MANISTEE WITHIN STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR 70F TEMPS AND
COLDER WATER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SFC TD`S HAVE ONLY MIXED OUT TO
33-36F ON AVERAGE...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND AND A VERY
GREEN LANDSCAPE. OTHERWISE...JUST GORGEOUS WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT AND ALL BUT EXPOSED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THOSE LOWER END MIXED OUT SFC TD`S...33 TO 36F BEING COMMON.
SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. CURRENT FROST
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HARD TO TWEAK...LOOKING SOLID AT THIS
POINT. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANY SORT OF A "HARD FREEZE" FOR THE
MAJORITY OF NRN MICHIGAN...BUT AREAS/PATCHY FROST STILL LIKELY FOR
MANY. SKIES PRETTY MUCH TO REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE REGION AND ALL MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FAR REMOVED FROM
THE NORTHERN LAKES. PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY VIA SLOW FALLING FAR NORTHERN LAKES
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ATTENDANT APPROACH OF A RATHER ILL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT. TYPICAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LOW END SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

DETAILS: REALLY...JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. BIGGEST STORY NO
DOUBT CENTERS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES...VIA A MODIFIED AIRMASS AND
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW. THROW IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY AIRMASS/CLEAR SKIES/GOOD CHANCE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE
(SUB 10 KNOT 1000MB SUPPORTS SUCH) ONE WOULD THINK WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING. SIMPLE
MODERATION OF OVERHEAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE WIDESPREAD
FROST PRODUCING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT
DEFINITELY WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID/UPPER 30 DEGREE
READINGS IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLDER LOCATION IN THE AU SABLE RIVER
VALLEY.

AS MENTIONED...WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE ACTIVE
HEADING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK WAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN LAKES...DRAGGING A DECAYING COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA IN THE PROCESS. SURE NOT SOLD ON SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH ALL
GOOD DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND THE SURFACE
FRONT ITSELF LOOSING DEFINITION/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS
APPROACH. SYSTEM IS ALSO RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...WITH
INDICATIONS LOW/MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...WITH MAIN H8-
H7 THETA-E RIDGE GETTING SQUEEZED AND EVENTUALLY DECAYING OFF TO OUR
NORTH. REALLY THINK BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THAT CLOSING
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. MAIN TAKEAWAY FROM ALL THIS IS THAT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO START OFF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BE SHOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR STORY FOR FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THUNDER
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND WITH SUCH LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL...HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.  THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ...PROVIDING A RATHER PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO A COLD FRONT THAT`S
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME FRAME INCLUDING EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME SHREDS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS BECOME CALM THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART (ALTHOUGH KMBL
SEEMS TO ALWAYS HAVE A BIT OF A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
ON CALM NIGHTS). ON TUESDAY...LIGHT S/SE WINDS (AROUND 5 KNOTS)
MAY START THE DAY. BUT EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO FULLY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS "ONSHORE" AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS HOWEVER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE. WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
REGION. LAKE AND LAND BREEZES WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>034.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD


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