Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 050205 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT


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