Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 260453
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1153 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

As stated earlier, the radar is showing that the snow showers are
diminishing. The ridge axis in the winds (1000-850 mb layer) is
upstream of the forecast area, and the resulting WSW flow and the
warming 850 mb temperatures are expected to move in after 06z.
Between now and 06z, the 850-700 mb layer RH falls to around 50%
which should shrink the showers ahead of the ridge and the warmer
air moving in.

UPDATE Issued at 831 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Snow showers on MRMS are diminishing or being pushed east by the
change in the wind flow. This will continue into the night. So
have let the advisories drop as we are only expecting an inch or
two across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

... Much more typical late winter northern Michigan weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Not much. Still looking at some minor
snow accumulations into this evening and again on Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Cold has definitely returned to the north
woods on the heels of gusty northwest winds on backside of departing
shortwave trough. Earlier system driven widespread light snow
continues to transition to more of the lake effect variety as this
cold air travels over the almost completely unfrozen Great Lakes.
Combination of low inversion heights and strong diurnal disruption
has definitely kept snow accumulations in check, even in the most
persistent activity. Next wave within developing broad northern
Conus troughing already racing east into the northern Plains,
setting its sites on our area for Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns: Additional snow accumulations into this
evening and again on Sunday.

Details: Northwest flow lake snows look to continue into this
evening, slowly diminishing in intensity as synoptic moisture
contribution is lost and already low inversion heights lower
further. Could see another inch or so in most persistent activity.
Given gusty winds which are likely producing some blowing/drifting
snow in those typical exposed areas, will simply let inherited
advisory ride for at least a few more hours. Dry air and lowering
inversion heights should really put a damper on lake snows
overnight, especially off of Lake Michigan. Somewhat more favorable
lake snow parameters persist a touch longer across the snow belts of
eastern Upper. Next wave and slug of deeper moisture arrives Sunday.
Forcing is limited, and the best of what there is passes by to our
north. Just enough there to produce some light snow showers,
particularly across eastern upper Michigan. Wildcard remains
possible lake contributions, with marginally cold enough low level
thermal profiles in increasingly gusty southwest winds. Not
expecting much as inversion levels remain low, but still think an
inch or two of new snow remains reasonable across eastern upper,
with amounts tapering off as one goes further south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Turning more quiet to start next week...

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Sunday`s fast-moving clipper
exists Sunday evening. Another storm system is possible late Tuesday
through the midweek timeframe; however, details regarding
strength/timing/p-type remain uncertain.

Pattern Forecast: Sunday`s upper-level shortwave and associated weak
surface low pressure are progged to be exiting the region Sunday
evening with weak upper-level ridging expected to prevail Monday
into the first half of Tuesday. Bubble of high pressure rooted at
the surface, combined with WAA/weak thermal ridging to start the
work week should help to provide partial sunshine and slightly above
normal temperatures. The next weather-maker locally begins to ramp
up late Tuesday through Wednesday as the jet stream buckles, energy
digs into the four corners region, and cyclogenesis gets underway
across the southern plains/Mississippi Valley.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Sunday`s fast-moving clipper system
continues to race eastward Sunday evening. Expecting light snow
showers to linger through the mid-late evening, especially across
the northern half of the CWA (steadiest along and north of the
bridge). Perhaps up to another inch of accumulation in sections of
eastern Chippewa/Mackinac counties before snow diminishes
completely. By Monday morning, surface ridging/high pressure is
expected to be evident across the Great Lakes with thermal ridging
quick to follow as winds back southwesterly by early afternoon.
Anticipating dry conditions on Monday with peeks of sunshine and
temperatures climbing slightly above normal...ranging from low 30s
north to the low 40s near Saginaw Bay.

Attention quickly transitions to the latter half of Tuesday as low
pressure ramps up across the southern plains/mid-Mississippi Valley.
While there is fairly high confidence in a sizable storm system
moving through the middle of the country during the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe, guidance variations in terms of strength,
timing, and p-type leads to fairly low confidence in the details at
this juncture. Possible solutions with the first wave/warm front on
Tuesday vary from a north-south wintry mix to rain gradient, to all
rain and well-above normal temperatures across much of the area.
Recent trends continue to suggest a secondary wave and much more
impressive area of low pressure moving through the southern Great
Lakes, which has the potential to bring heavy, wet snow to portions
of northern Michigan. Worth monitoring the Tuesday-Wednesday
timeframe in future outlooks.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Another system moving out of the Plains is set to impact the Great
Lakes near mid-week next week. There is still a good deal of
uncertainty with the track, and as has been the case often this
winter that will have a large impact on p-type and accumulation
issues for us. Tuesday rains will mix with and change to snow
overnight into Wednesday. Many areas will see a switch back to rain
during the day Wednesday, but just how far north that will occur is
going to be dependent on the track of the aforementioned low. Colder
air moves back in by Thursday, with things switching over to lake
effect going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

The snow is out of all the TAF sites at the moment. The only one
to be under any threat is APN as the wave of light snow moves
through the region. The CIGs look to be VFR moving into the area,
but the snow may briefly lower the vsbys to about 6SM. The snow
should be out of the area around APN by 08z. Otherwise, VFR cigs
and vsbys are expected through the night as the wave moves out of
N Lower. Skies will clear for a bit overnight. The next wave is
expected to push into the region in the afternoon, and bring the
chance of snow to the region, mainly north of M-72.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Gusty northwest winds continue, with some briefly reaching
gale force on northern Lake Huron. This will continue into this
evening, with winds temporarily decreasing overnight. Next system
rapidly approaches for Sunday, with gusty southwest winds developing
out in front of it. More headlines will likely be needed on Sunday,
with even a few gale gusts possible in the Manitou Passage where
coastal convergence will be maximized. Light winds return Sunday
night on into the start of next work week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MSB


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