Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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121
FXUS63 KAPX 192039
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...low, some mixed precip possible
on Friday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split flow pattern across the CONUS
with northern branch ridging through the northern plains and Great
Lakes, and closed shortwave trough over the central and southern
plains. Broad surface high pressure resides across the eastern
CONUS. Weakly organized low pressure sits over the lower
Mississippi River Valley along with moisture/clouds and precip
streaming northward toward the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
closed low in the plains. Here at home, stratus and some fog have
hung on through the day. But, a good amount of thinning/clearing
of the low clouds has taken shape downstate over the last one to
two hours and is progressing into northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...clearing trend tonight, mixed precip
potential on Friday.

Initially, anticipate some sort of S-N clearing trend heading
into the evening hours, although low clouds will simply get
replaced by thickening mid and high cloud cover. But there may be
a few hours with partly cloudy skies for some locations.

Meanwhile, moisture/precip continues to stream northward through
the Mississippi River Valley ahead of plains closed shortwave
trough, with showers already as far north as northern Illinois/eastern
Iowa. Shortwave will wobble its` up into the Midwest/western Great
Lakes through the day on Friday, on its` way to getting reabsorbed
into the main flow. Still anticipate a decaying axis of precip to
pivot up through the region late tonight and through the day
Friday bringing a relatively lower amount of precip across the
area, probably on the order of 0.05 to 0.15, possibly a little
more across the S/SW counties.

Bigger forecast issue is precip type. Guidance continues to
suggest a subtle low level cooling trend as the upper trough
pivots into the region. Combined with a wedge of fairly dry air in
the lower levels and lots of room for evaporative coolings/wet
bulb temps dropping to near 0C on Friday suggests precip may start
as snow or a mix early on before gradually becoming rain during
the day Friday as surface temps warm. But with relatively lower
end precip amounts anticipated, not to overly concerned about the
wintry mixed precip potential at this point. In fact, given the
wedge of dry air in the lower levels, it is possible that we see
very little precip with this system. Will see how it goes...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017


High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low moves into IA by Saturday
morning pushing a warm front into MI. Another low on its
heels moves through TX Saturday and into the TN Valley Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Warm front swings through Saturday with
the chance of some rain. Then as next system approaches broad area
of isentropic lift develops over the region Sunday with little
synoptic forcing. Moisture depth not great through the weekend so
looking at mostly chancy pops. 850mb temps remain above 0C through
the weekend as well with temperatures running about 15 degrees
above normal.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Well above normal temperatures will continue through the extended
period. Pattern remains nebulous, with a few systems in or near the
region through the week. Lots of uncertainty right now, so will
leave the consensus, generally low chance PoPs through early in the
week, as we look to remain on the northern fringes of systems as
they pass to our south. Better chances for rain, and perhaps a
wintry mix, will come with a mid-week system. Looks like we could
see the return of some colder air later in the week behind this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Stratus and some fog lingers across northern lower Michigan this
afternoon. Still think fog will tend to thin out over the next few
hours just about everywhere, and stratus may thin out around the
TVC/MBL terminal sites as well. PLN/APN may be stuck
unfortunately.

Tonight, lowering stratus and some fog may return again tonight
along with increasing chances for precip heading into Friday
morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Light winds/waves expected for the next few days, with no marine
headlines anticipated.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...KJF
LONG TERM...KJF
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA



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