Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260245
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

AS EXPECTED...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI
AND SURROUNDINGS. NOT AS EXPECTED IS THAT THIS PRECIP IS
FALLING AS RAIN...PER OBS AT PLN AND BEAVER ISL. SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S...AND PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANTLY THE VERY LIGHT NATURE
OF THE PRECIP...ARE COMBINING TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIP. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF RAIN TO THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND
EASTERN UPPER NEAR LAKES MI/HURON. WOULD NOT PRECLUDE A STRAY
HUNDREDTH AS THIS WARM ADVECTION WING LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEPING THINGS AS A FLURRY/SPRINKLE MENTION STILL
SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. CERTAINLY SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER...NEAR AND S OF M-55 IN PARTICULAR. BUT SHORT-
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY BEARISH ON CLEARING TRENDS. AND
THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THOSE TRENDS SOMEWHAT
ACADEMIC OVERNIGHT. WHERE IT DOESN/T CLEAR (WHICH WILL BE MOST
PLACES)...TEMPS WILL GO NOWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER/LIGHT SNOW IN E UPPER

OVERVIEW...TWO SFC LOWS ARE STRETCHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A 500 MB 70 KNOT STREAK MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
MORNING, AND AS THE UPPER FORCING LEFT DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES,
AND THEN NOTHING. HOWEVER, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WEST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND CONNECTED TO THE SFC LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS IS
BEGINNING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
HELPS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
MOST OF THE RADAR IMAGES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE
BEEN FROM SNOW SUBLIMATING/EVAPORATING ALOFT.

TONIGHT...INITIALLY, THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH SOME JET STREAK SUPPORT IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE
THE SNOW FROM MINNESOTA TO C UPPER. HOWEVER, THE 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KANSAS DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IN TURN PUSHES AND DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FORCES THE WARM AIR NORTH
AND PUSHES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST MOISTURE FOR THESE PROCESSES IS FORCED OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB STREAM`S 70 KNOT JET`S LFQ AND
NORTHERN STREAM`S 70 KNOT JET`S RRQ COUPLE ALONG THE FRONT TO POOL
THE 850 MB AND 700-500 MB MOISTURE NORTH OF E UPPER. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IF THESE FEATURES DEVIATE BY 50 MILES, THERE COULD BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN E UPPER, OTHERWISE, WILL EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

...WEEKEND TO FEATURE RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOWERS/COLDER
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ACTIVE PACIFIC DOMINANT PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM NORTH AMERICA WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN...WITH TWO
PREDOMINANT LONG WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS PATTERN.  ONE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PACIFIC.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT
LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE NOW QUICKLY EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE
ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS CANADA...ONE WAVE EMERGING
FROM ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO ALBERTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER WAVE TO ITS SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THAT JUST NUDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...DEVELOPING COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AROUND THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE.  COLDEST AIR
BOTTLED UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS/20S BELOW ZERO.

"STREAK" OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DEFORMATION
AXIS WILL PUSH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY...
WITH SOME BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH GREAT LAKES BENEATH
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHING SITS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  EVENTUALLY A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY WILL GET
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THIS IN TURN WILL
PUSH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY (PROBABLY WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG IT).  ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL DROP IN
AND HELP USHER SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER LAKES TO END
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIFTING OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (LIKELIHOOD DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE IN
QUESTION...MORE AN ISSUE OF AMOUNTS AND P-TYPE)...AND IMPACTS WITH
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR HEADING INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...START OF THE FORECAST PRETTY BENIGN WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH STILL MAY
BE A DEEP ENOUGH MOIST LAYER AND SOME RESIDUAL UPWARD FORCING FOR
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH BUT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF SUN.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO GET
ORGANIZED FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT STREAKS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY
MORNING.  PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRY SOME OVERNIGHT POPS INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT.

PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET FOR SATURDAY...SO
LIKELY POPS SHOULD STILL BE IN ORDER.  MAY ALSO BE LOOKING AT A
PRETTY GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...PERHAPS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT.  WILL AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE THIS IDEA WITH
SOME HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SEE WHERE LATER TRENDS TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER GETTING INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER WILL MAKE P-TYPE TRICKY).  DOES LOOK LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FROZEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WAVE WILL COMPLICATE THERMAL PROFILES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BY PUSHING WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTHERN LOWER.  PROBABLY PRUDENT AT THIS POINT TO PLAY TO FORECAST
AS TRENDING TOWARD RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72...WITH A MIX TO SNOW
MOVING NORTHWARD (MAY STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN).  COULD
PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF "WETTER" SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF VERTICAL MOTION PROFILES CAN LINE UP WITH
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE (WITH SOME HINTS THAT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY)
WHICH COULD LEAD TO BETTER DENDRITE PRODUCTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THUS MORE FAVORABLE SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS.  SYNOPTIC SNOW EXPECTED
TO TREND DOWNWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR STARTING TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
CONVECTION HEADING INTO SUNDAY.

WEST-NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETS UP FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES SINKING BELOW -10C.  SO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SET UP
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE FORMER DEEPER INTO THE
COLD AIR SO WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR
EXPECTED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE MID 20S-AROUND 30 (MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN AREAS FAVORED WITH WEST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
ARRIVAL OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SNOW...THOUGH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TOTALS MODEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE TEENS MID WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO SINGLE DIGITS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY WEAK
PRESSURE TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SSE. THESE CLOUDS
WILL STRUGGLE TO BE DISLODGED...AND IN FACT SHOULD THICKEN FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SOME HOLES IN THE OVC HAVE
OPENED UP AROUND TVC/MBL...DON/T THINK THESE WILL BE LONG-
LASTING...BUT WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS FRIDAY...SOME MISTY FOG AND/OR -DZ COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY
AT PLN/TVC/MBL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ



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