Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 242030
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SHARP...POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THEN ON DOWN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING HAS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO GET
A PSEUDO-FIXED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IN ESSENCE A STANDING WAVE PATTERN OF PRECIP ATTACHED
TO THE TERRAIN WE SEE SO OFTEN IN THE WINTER. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRETCHES BACK INTO WISCONSIN ACROSS THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
SEVERAL BATCHES OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK MESOLOW
SPIN-UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ROLLING
THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BEEFIER SNOW
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO WHAT
IS STILL GOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. COUPLED WITH
GUSTIER WINDS/BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING... FEEL
COMPELLED TO STRETCH THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAN PROBABLY TRIM CHIPPEWA COUNTY OUT
OF THE HEADLINE BUT HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES INTO THE
HEADLINE FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

FORECAST CHALLENGES: DETERMINING THE AMOUNT OF LES BASED ON THE ICE
COVERAGE.

(2/25)WEDNESDAY...WINDS START OUT FROM THE NW AND SHIT TO THE N
THROUGH THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. WITH
THE VERY COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES (-20C OR COLDER) AND THE ICE
COVERAGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF N LAKE MICHIGAN, HAVE LEFT
THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER ISN`T A PROBLEM AS THE RH IN THE LAYER IS IN THE 40S. THE
MOISTURE INCREASES BY 12Z, OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN NORTH.
AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

(2/26)THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NW, ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BY THE LOOKS OF THE WINDS THE N BANDS WILL TURN
INTO NW BANDS, BUT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXPECT MORE CELLULAR
GLOBS OF SNOW SHOWERS, INSTEAD OF DISCRETE BANDS AS WE USUALLY GET.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE THE SNOW TO GET VERY FAR INLAND.
BY THE AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
BEGINS TO FALL OFF AGAIN TO 50% OR LESS. SO WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED
POPS AS WE GO TO VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. OVERNIGHT, THE 500 MB
TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE SFC HIGH
TO THE WEST. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN WEST OVERNIGHT SO WILL ALLOW FOR
THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM LES IN A WNW FLOW REGIME.

(2/27)FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF US, AND LOOKS TO
BE PUMPING OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
FALLS TO AROUND 30% BY 00Z. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND -16C
LESSENING THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE 500 MB
TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THE NIGHT BEFORE,
WILL EXPECT THAT IT WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE SUN
BREAKING OUT WITH THE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST OF THE VERY COLD DAYS AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO KICK US INTO
RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE. THINGS
WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE FIRST OF TWO EVENTS OF INTEREST ARRIVES
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF US. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING THINGS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY. CERTAINLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
LEE CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT WILL BE A NICE
REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT ARCTIC AIR MASSES AS WE GET INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

ONGOING AREA OF SNOW PRODUCING LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING/SHRINKING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL TO MVFR
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUSTIER WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN BLSN.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH MID EVENING. PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET AT THE TERMINAL SITES...ESPECIALLY AT TVC/MBL. WINDS SHIFT
INTO THE NNW WITH MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

WINDS:GUSTY WEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...GUSTS RUNNING 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ015>023-025>028-031>033.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM


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