Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WING OF
LIGHTER RAIN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE MAIN QUESTION
IS...WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ANSWER IS NOT AN EASY ONE...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SO AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO GET GOING THOUGH...WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE A BIT STRONG WITH 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING 50
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED TVC AND MBL AND SHOULD ALSO
PASS THROUGH APN AND PLN SHORTLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT STILL SOME MVFR CIGS MIXED IN WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A LULL IN
ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SAVE FOR PERHAPS
A SHOWER AT PLN) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY FROM 18Z ONWARD). REALLY TOUGH CIG
FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT
WITH A LITTLE WIND ALL NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SMD



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