Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220140
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
940 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Tail end of weakening cold front continues to slip down through
northern lower Michigan this evening, accompanied by a narrow
corridor of BKN-OVC mid cloud (cigs largely above 10K feet). KAPX
radar still showing a few pockets of precip returns sliding down
through NE lower Michigan, but pretty much just virga given the
fairly dry layer below 700 mb to the surface seen on this evening`s
APX sounding (suppose someone could have had a few drops hit their
windshield).

Rest of tonight, surface front and associated mid cloud deck will
slip south of the CWA by 06Z or so, with sharp upstream ridging
and surface high pressure building into the region overnight
through Sunday. There are some spotty lower clouds over southern
Ontario (NE of the Soo) that guidance RH forecasts wants to drag into
the area overnight. But I have my doubts about that happening.
That said, suppose it`s not entirely out the question, but plan on
sticking with the inherited clearing forecast for the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather amplified flow regime
established across the Conus, with stout plains ridge bookend by
rather robust west coast and eastern Great Lakes centered trough
axes. Northern Michigan placed squarely under the interface of
slowly eastward building upstream ridge and just as slow to depart
troughing, although elongated surface high continues to dominate
at the surface. There is a very weak surface trough/cool front
dropping into the northern lakes, itself tied to passing mid level
wave digging to our northeast. Band of clouds associated with
these features, just now starting to dive into eastern upper
Michigan. Much more consolidated band of clouds just to the
northeast, with just deep enough moisture/forcing to even kick off
a few very light showers across Ontario. Otherwise, just another
delightful day across the northwoods, with continuation of above
normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine (a few very high based
cu on top of deep and well mixed boundary layer). Earlier
described mid level pattern slowly progresses east in the coming
days, with that upstream ridge looking to center itself directly
overhead Monday night. This sets the stage for a continuation of
dry and mild weather into the start of the work week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud trends.

Details: Only story tonight remains those northern clouds, some of
which should skirt our northeast areas this evening.  Per linear
extrapolation and recent satellite trends, actually starting to
think areas of eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan may trend
mostly cloudy for a time later this afternoon into early evening,
with skies clearing out again through the overnight.  Given dearth
of low level moisture, simply not seeing any opportunity for those
upstream surface reaching showers to make it this far south.
If anything does survive, it should be nothing more than a few
sprinkles.  With those additional clouds and an increasingly
modified airmass, temperatures tonight should stay rather mild, with
readings by sunrise Sunday mostly in the mid and upper 40s.

Fire Weather...Borderline red flag conditions at some sights this
afternoon as deep mixing and increasingly dry low levels have
taken their collective toll. Not expecting this to be of long
duration or widespread, so will forgo any red flag warnings
(although will continue to highlight elevated fire danger wording
in our products). Decent rh recovery expected tonight, with values
once again dropping rather quickly Sunday. While widespread
critical level rh values will be realized, slightly cooler
temperatures and light winds should keep conditions below red flag
warning criteria. However, given recent dry spell and borderline
conditions, will continue to highlight elevated fire danger
concerns.  BOGUTH

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High impact weather potential: Elevated fire danger on Sunday and
Monday

High pressure and drying through the column will result in a mostly
sunny Sunday, with nothing more than a few cirrus.  Weak caa in
north to northeast flow regime, coupled with lower mixing heights,
should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than those observed
the last couple days.  Still mild, however, with highs in the lower
to middle 70s away from the big waters.  Onshore flow will keep
those nearshore communities a touch cooler.   BOGUTH

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Ridging at surface and aloft
builds slowly across Michigan through the day on Monday, becoming
squeezed between areas of low pressure both east and west.  With
strong ridging in place and deep layer drying, little in the way of
cloudiness expected.  Low soil moisture and low dewpoints will
result in excellent radiational cooling conditions and we could
easily see a 35-40 degree diurnal temperature range in some
areas. The typically colder locations could dip into the middle
and upper 30s /patchy frost?/. Becoming quite warm on Monday as H8
thermal ridge builds toward the western lakes with 13-14 degc air.
Brought down dry adiabatically these temps support high temps into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still not much wind on Monday as there
remains limited winds through the mixed layer /10-15 mph/.

Upper ridge axis slides east of the area Monday night into Tuesday,
with developing return flow bringing higher dewpoint air northward
toward the Great Lakes.   A shortwave and associated weak frontal
boundary will push out of the Upper Midwest and toward the area on
Tuesday, weakening a bit as it pushes into downstream ridging.
Clouds will increase, along with scattered shower/tstm chances, as
an axis of steeper mid level lapse rates /7-8degc/ and deeper
moisture pushes into the area. Tuesday could be very warm over
eastern parts of the area, dependent on how quickly the clouds
thicken up. 850mb temps would support readings into the lower to
middle 80s east of I-75 /enhanced by downslope flow/.

Fire weather...Another elevated fire danger day on Monday with low
afternoon RH and very warm temperatures.  Still lacking the wind
component /only 10-15 kts through the mixed layer/.  Given the fact
that historically, a number of large fires have occurred on similar
wind regimes /based on DNR records/, this is definitely a day to
watch fire weatherwise.    KEYSOR

Certainly a pattern switch coming for the extended. With the ridge
axis now off to our east, we will still be under slight ridging,
with shortwave impulses ejecting out of deep troughing out west.
This, combined with low pressure moving through the plains and to
our west, will drive shower chances through the extended period.
There may also be some rumbles of thunder, especially mid to late
week. There could be some stronger storms, really dependent on when
and where the low tracks. Something to keep an eye as we go through
the week.    MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continuing VFR flight conditions...

Weak/moisture starved front is dropping down through northern
lower Michigan this evening bringing along a narrow ribbon of mid
cloud cover through the region. Regional weather radars show a few
pockets of precip returns with the mid cloud deck, but doubtful
there is much getting to the ground giving the dry lower levels,
other than maybe a few sprinkles.

Batch of mid cloud will slip through the region this evening with
the front followed by surface high pressure rebuilding across the
Great Lakes later tonight through Sunday. There is some lower
cloud cover upstream behind the front across southern Ontario. But
doubtful that any of that makes it into northern Michigan. So, clearing
skies anticipated overnight and mainly clear skies for Sunday.

Winds diminish for tonight, increase to 10 knots or less Sunday.
Mainly from the north although lake breezes will again locally
turn winds more onshore at the terminal sites.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

No sign of any significant wind/wave concerns for the next
several days.  Dry weather will also prevail, with the potential for
a few showers and thunderstorms not arriving until Tuesday.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...Keysor
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB


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