Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
151 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW EXTENDS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NRN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND CIGS
ARE GRADUALLY LOWER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT. KAPX 88D IS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RETURN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN...ALL OF WHICH APPEARS
TO STILL BE ALOFT (VIRGA). THIS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF OUR CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO SLIGHTLY SPEED UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND OBSERVED
DATA. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR AREAS
THAT MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. THUS...ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LIGHT WINDS...DRY LOW LEVELS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS YIELDING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE
UPPER 30S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: WELL ADVERTISED RATHER
SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED RAIN EVENT STILL EXPECTED. FACTORS ARE
MANY TO PRODUCE SUCH...ALTHOUGH KEY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS
WILL BE DECAYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
AXIS...ALL-THE-WHILE OVERHEAD DIVERGENCE RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN ONTARIO UPPER LEVEL
JET. DEEP LAYER FGEN RESPONSE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...WITH A WELL
DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. ALL THE
ABOVE WILL WORK OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO HOVER
AROUND 1 INCH LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS
MAY BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME (UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES)...LACK OF ANY
EXPECTED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE MAIN RAIN CORRIDOR SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL RATES LIMITED...HELPING NEGATE ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
RIVER LEVELS HAVE ALSO RELAXED WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT EXPECTED SLOW TO MODERATE RUNOFF FROM
ABOVE RAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MAIN FOCUS CENTER ON RAIN
TOTALS AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS.

DETAILS: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING AS THERMAL TIGHTENING BEGINS IN EARNEST AND
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEER INTO THE REGION. AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH A STRENGTHENING FGEN
RESPONSE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE BETTER RAINS WILL
ALIGN...ALTHOUGH BASED OF ANTICIPATED SLOPED FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
FORCED ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THAT VEERING (BUT WEAKENING) LOWER
LEVEL JET...FEEL STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE STRAITS REGION.
FORCING ONLY INCREASES HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS THAT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENTERS THE MIX.
LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC AXIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HELPED OUT BY
INTENSIFYING NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF CANADA. PERIODS OF RAIN...AT TIMES
MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PER
PATTERN RECOGNITION OF ANTICIPATED FORCING PLACEMENT...FEEL THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN UP THROUGH THE STRAITS WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...WITH THAT
SAID...AND AS RECENT HISTORY HAS SO OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORTED...FGEN
RESPONSE TENDS TO FOCUS A TOUCH NORTH OF INITIAL GUIDANCE PROGS...SO
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-68 THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER VARIETY AS FORCING BEGINS TO
WANE. TRENDS SUPPORT MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST BEFORE COLD ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES FOR ANY SNOW
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS: SIMPLE PROLONGED NATURE OF EVENT AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE FOCUSED DYNAMICS SURE ARGUES FOR SOME RATHER HEFTY TOTALS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. VAST MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW UPWARD OF 2
INCH RAIN TOTALS...WITH THE BULLSEYE OF HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING FROM
M-32 THROUGH THE STRAITS. STILL BELIEVE THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT NORTH...
CENTERING ITSELF ALONG AND NORTH OF M-68 THROUGH THE STRAITS/SOUTH
HALF OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE IMPRESSIVE NO DOUBT...AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
PROLONGED VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING CONCERNS...WITH THE GROUND EASILY ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF
THIS WATER. AS SUCH...CAN FIND NO COMPELLING REASON TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES. WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB PATTERN HAS A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING SQUEEZED OUT BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND A BROAD
STATIONARY LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EURO SHOWS
THE LATTER LOW WINNING OUT...SUPPRESSING THE TRACK OF THE SMALLER
LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND PUSHING WHAT ENERGY IT HAS LEFT OFF TO
THE EAST COAST. IN THIS SCENARIO...NARY A SPRINKLE MAKES IT INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS HOWEVER...HAS A BIT MORE NORTHERN TRACK
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...DESPITE SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF THE BIG
BROTHER CANADIAN LOW. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE CWA (AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN LOWER) FOR THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...WILL LIKELY NOT
ADJUST THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVES...KNOWING WE
MIGHT SCOOT THROUGH DRY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN EASIER TALE TO TELL...GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING BELOW CLIMO...AND
EVENTUALLY GETTING NEAR NORMAL BY THE PERIODS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WILL PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES BECOMING MORE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS (POSSIBLY IFR)...AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL REDUCED VSBYS IN BETTER RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LIGHT EAST/SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...REMAINING GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LAKE BREEZES
DYING OFF. INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT WHILE WINDS GO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI. WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS WORKING EASTWARD. NO ADVISORY
WINDS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE LAKES.
RAINS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY STEADY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW WORKS INTO NRN IL. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HEADLINES LIKELY BEING NEEDED...WITH
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR GALES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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