Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241926
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...RETURN FLOW STARTS TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN
PRODUCING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE FROM THE NORTHERN CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AS WELL. TO THE WEST, THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IS LOCATED IN THE
DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, INTO OHIO BY 12Z.
THIS WILL SET UP THE RETURN FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. SO WILL
EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO N LOWER
AND E UPPER AFTER 06Z, AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. ALSO THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO BEING
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL STABILIZE OUR TEMPERATURES SO
THAT THEY DON`T FALL AS FAR AT THEY DID LAST NIGHT. WITH THE RETURN
FLOW, WON`T EXPECT THE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING/WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN FIXED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...BOUNDED BY LONG WAVE
TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA/PAC NW AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BUT DEEPER TROUGHING STILL SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CONUS LATER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...AS LONG WAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS SIGNALS OUR NEXT
TALKED ABOUT SUMMER COOL DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRANSITION TO
DEEPER TROUGHING ALSO SIGNALS A BIT MORE ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN THE SHORTER TERM BEFORE THE BIG TRANSITION...WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOWER END PRECIP CHANCES LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO A RETURN FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR UP INTO  THE
GREAT LAKES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH/EAST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS
STRETCHING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS TODAY (WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE APEX AND EASTERN GRADIENT OF THAT
AXIS) WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT/FOLD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND PARTICULARLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY STILL LOOKING DRY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A ROGUE
SHOWER SNEAKING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. BUT FORCING/
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
GRADIENT ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...MUCH
BETTER MOISTURE/GRADIENT/FORCING STILL LOOKING TO SET UP FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND I STILL
THINK AREAS FROM SRN WISCONSIN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BETTER
POSITIONED TO GET A ROUND OF CONVECTION ROLLING ACROSS LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...STOUT UPPER JET CORE
WILL BE PUNCHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL EXIT REGION FORCING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN MAY BE
ENOUGH TO HELP DRAW/DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES TRAIL OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND WHATEVER ROLLS THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
HAVE ADDED SOME TIMING DETAIL TO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PAC NW TODAY
TAKES A DIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ULTIMATELY CARVES OUT ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH HEADING INTO MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE STRETCHED LIKELY POPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT DIG DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING/COOLER AIR ALOFT ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO
CARVE OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TO START OUT THE
WORK WEEK. WITHIN SUCH A PATTERN...FIRST THOUGHTS ARE TO PUT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY WHEN COOLEST AIR WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION. BUT...IT DRIES OUT FAIRLY WELL BEHIND THE WAVE BY
MONDAY AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD (-17C AT 500 MB).
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SE COUNTIES MONDAY
WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL RESIDE. JUST HIDDEN (ISOLATED)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBILITIES FOR A WEAKER
NRN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOME GUSTINESS
WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AND NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY WITH A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...ADAM





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